Estoril Open de Portugal

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Fasth 8th
Havret mc
Dodd 6th

What an exasperating event! Not only did the leaders play like a bunch of hackers over the final few holes with penalty stroke after penalty stroke, but Dodd finished one shot out of a profitable 5th place when there had been such a huge advantage to the Thursday afternoon starters. By the conclusion of the 2nd round, the players in the Thursday afternoon groups averages 3.78 shots lower than those in the Thursday morning groups. Havret was one of those in the worst of the draw, but so was Dodd. He was clearly not playing at full concentration over the back nine on Sunday, but it could have so very different. Two players in the top-10, but no return.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Niclas Fasth to win 14/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Easybets and GolfingGods
Weak field and a new course on the European Tour, so looking for players who have shown an ability to win on this Tour and who are in good form. Fasth fits that bill having won his second European Tour event in New Zealand last month and has followed that with finishes of 4th, 22nd and 16th against much stronger fields. Only one previous appearance in this event (2001), but it is also supportive as he finished in the top-10 on that occasion.

Gregory Havret to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
Havret won his sole European Tour event in the 2001 Italian Open, but lost out only via a playoff for the 2004 South African Open and he has shown enough form recently to indicate that he will be a winner again soon. His six starts in 2005 read as follows: 2nd, 5th, 11th, mc, 5th and 8th. Of the players in this field who have played at least 10 rounds, he is the highest-ranked player in the 2005 European Tour stroke average category, followed by Schwartzel, Fasth and then Dodd. Add in a top-10 finish in this event last year and he is worthy of short odds.

Stephen Dodd to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler, GolfingGods and BetFred
Dodd completes the trio of players who rank highly in the Tour's stroke average category and who have won on Tour. He won the China Open in November last year and it took a miraculous finish by Ernie Els to deny him victory in Dubai earlier this month. He showed very impressive form when under considerable pressure in the final round and he should not be denied if he finds himself in a similar position against this field.