Estoril Open de Portugal

Finishing Positions (0.5 pt Stakes)

Final Summary: Loss 5 Pts. These last few weeks we have had too many sells pre event who have gone to M/U at 50 and that has left us trying to trade our way out. Gallacher, through a poor weekend, and Tunnicliff gave us 2/2 this week. Park though came through to cover some of those losses and of the buys we done not too badly. All in all though we done a lot better than my comments on the playing ability of Paul Lawrie. As I type, McCarron is leading the Bellsouth so will hopefully eat up the 5 pt. loss suffered here.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: Not a good return today. Gallacher shot well over par to fall right down near the 50 mark. Park is back near his original sell price, Schwartzel is a loser for us and Fasth shot well to get just outside the Top 10. The only positive was Dougherty who is falling back a bit and is outside the Top 30. Tomorrow could bring a different set of scores but at the moment we would hope to get out of this week level at best.)

Buy Jose Manuel Lara at 43 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 3.5 Pts
Closing this bet as Lara's real price is nearer 50 than the 43 we can get out at. Therefore, if we get out at a small loss we have 2 strong sells running, 2 risky buys and a new value buy trade from a starting point of +4.75 pts which seems ok at this stage of the weekend.

Buy Niclas Fasth at 26 with Spreadex M/U 10.5, Loss 7.75 Pts
Fasth is -1 and is being given just a little too much respect with this price. Tied 35th with 40 players within 3 shots, Fasth should be around the 30/31 mark in my opinion and with stats so far of 34 and 31 putts in two rounds and only half his fairways reached in R2, he is not playing that well. That isn't to say he can't turn it round, he is the pre event favourite of course, but at the price Spreadex expect him to and that is by no means guaranteed.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: Tunnicliff leaves the event early with a MC and of the other sells, Gallacher and Park are in contention around the Top 25 or so and Lara has scraped in and needs to make the best of an early tee time tomorrow. Of the buys, Havret collapsed on the back 9 to miss out, Schwartzel and Dougherty though are contending although Dougherty shipped 3 shots in the last two holes but at the moment I wouldn't put anyone off backing Dougherty to win this at good odds.)

Sell Jose Manuel Lara at 40 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 5 Pts
Lara is +3 but with an early tee time tomorrow he possibly only needs to shoot par to make the weekend. Jose took 31 putts in R1 which contributed to the high score as he hit 12 of the 13 fairways on non par 3 holes. If he can get his putter going tomorrow he will hopefully get into R3 with shots to spare. His current form going into this week is average but we have based our picks this week on European soil form and in 04' Lara had 7 Top 20's in 22 events with 7 cuts missed, although 5 of those were in a row in early summer.

Sell David Park at 38 with Sporting Index M/U 21, Profit 8.5 Pts
Similar reasoning here. An early tee time on Friday allows Park the chance to improve on his 73 yesterday. Although he is 2 over he is inside the cut line on this difficult layout. His R1 stats include 36 !! putts which of course affected his score somewhat and you wonder how far up the leaderboard he would be with an average rounds' putting. This would suggest the rest of his game is ok and if he can get some more putts falling he should be ok tomorrow.

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: A fair day, the early starters seemed to get the heaviest winds but that is no excuse for Tunnicliff's score which was very poor. Dougherty and Havret are +1 and if the wind did change tomorrow then those with a late/early tee time split would have had a huge advantage. Gallacher has made use of that advantage shooting 70 to be in the Top 20 but Schwartzel joins Dougherty and Havret at +1. )

Please note, I was advised last week by a Spreadex trader that the "spread free" offer had finished. This information was incorrect and their golf trader today has advised me that the offer is still very much on.

Sell Stephen Gallacher at 36 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7 Pts
Also available at IG. Gallacher will be our final pre-start trade. This price is based on 4 starts this year where he has failed to beat 50th place in all 4 attempts. Of course, all these results are from different ends of the earth but back in Europe in 2004 his record was 21 events played, 8 Top 20's and an average FP around 33. Given the depth of field here backing proven players in the high 30's has some appeal.

Buy Charl Schwartzel at 27 with Spreadex M/U 10.5, Loss 8.25 Pts
Some quotes this week are heavily based on current form in 05 and although that is the most important information that is applicable, I feel it has led to the firms over estimating the chances of some. Schwartzel on the European mainland in 04' had a FP average of over 43 and although this event does not have a depth of talent due to its position in the calendar, 27 is fairly low for a player who has fair recent form without being exceptional.

Buy Nick Dougherty at 25 with Spreadex M/U 30.5, Profit 4.75 Pts
Similarly with Dougherty, excellent results in 05' have possibly meant that the firms are expecting a sell/buy bias towards Dougherty and have priced accordingly. Like, Schwartzel, Dougherty's 2004 FP average is over 43 and accepting that he has a win, a 6th and a respectable 40th in his foray onto the PGA tour at Bay Hill. Still, all these results have been achieved in foreign lands and his record on the mainland of Europe is poor and needs rectified and at the price is worth taking on.

Sell Miles Tunnicliff at 35 with Spreadex M/U 50, Loss 7.5 Pts
A player with a reputation for being a good wind player, usually I am a little sceptical of these reputations, I certainly don't think that Paul Lawrie's wind playing reputation is justified. However, Tunnicliff does seem to do well under a heavy wind and in the three events played on this course between the Seniors Tour and the Challenge Tour it does seem that a strong wind is likely to be present. That apart, the price just seems a couple of points too high and certainly others go lower than the 35 available.

Buy Gregory Havret at 22.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 13.75 Pts
Last of the three buys and the reasoning is exactly as the previous two. We have a player in excellent form (4th and 5th recently) who has 2004 stats that show him to be, long term, a poorer player than his current form is showing. Averaging 40 in 2004 on the mainland, getting 22.5 with the Spreadex offer makes this a great bet. There is little course form to go on, so all we have to go on are the other tour results, and the website guide to the course which suggests it won't be the easiest course they play all year. If wind is a factor and tee times bring a huge advantage or disadvantage then I would rather be a low priced buyer with a known downside than trade too many players with a greater risk attached.