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Finishing Positions (0.5pt Stakes) Result: Profit = 4.5 Pts.

Final Summary: Good last day for Randhawa helped make an odds-on loss into a final profit but we were always up against it from Friday when the three afternoon players all shot well over par to miss the cut. The R3 plays helped enormously and success on the R2 plays was hindered by both players getting the best conditions in R3 to post average scores but ultimately better scores than those going out later in the day.

Round Four: No further trades. In a perfect situation we could have closed out McGinley in the high 40's but his best close price is 43 and that is nowhere near his true value. Therefore, we need to hope he doesn't get up inside the Top 50 and that this "win" will cushion the other trades we have lost on. If current prices were reciprocated for real in R4 then we will break even, but with 7 players to play 18 holes we could end up the week in good profit or a substantial loss. There will be weeks where it looks easy and if we can get out the tough weeks level we will do ok.

Pre Round Three Trades (Summary: We are probably sitting in a better position now than after R1/R2. McGinley is outside the top 50, the two South Africans admittedly have come back into it a little but our remaining sells, Randhawa, Hansen and especially Lane have performed well today. We will see what prices are offered later in the day and try and get ourselves into a strong position going into Day 4.)

Buy Soren Kjeldsen at 38 with Sporting Index M/U 43.5, Profit 2.75 pts
Going to take a hit on this trade. I feel with the leaderboard as it is Kjeldsen is quite good value to buy at 38 so long term it would pay us to close this than let it run and hope he improves his score.

Buy Nick Dougherty at 23 with Spreadex M/U 23
Dougherty has improved immensely this year but he is being priced accordingly. Lafeber is also 20-23 but a stroke ahead and although a stroke may mean very little you have to realise that the stroke averages of all of these players are very close. At -3 and tied 16th with 7 others Dougherty should be a little higher especially as thhe strokes stretch out as you go up the leaderboard but there are 59 players tied or within 3 strokes of him. A poor round tomorrow from anyone will see them fall rather quickly downwards.

Buy Paul McGinley at 24 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 13 pts
Same reasoning here. Tied 24th with 7 others, McGinley is a fair way behind the leaders but only two shots above those who are currently in 50th place for our purposes. Yes, he is the 2nd/3rd best player in the field but that does not guarantee he will automatically go up the leaderboard tomorrow. He should be 26/27 in my opinion.

I was tempted to go in again on the two South Africans by buying them at 41 and 38 respectively but feel that puts too big a strain on our bets. To do so it would only take a good weekend from either to guarantee failure. However, their prices are value. Getting out of the week though positively is the most important thing and trading the three buys above is probably safer than betting too much on two specific players. I also have to appreciate that we have put on more bets than normal this week and the volatility and risk has to be accounted for.

Pre Round Two Trades (Summary: A tough days scoring sees us lose Romero, Forsyth, Evans and Haeggman and our only saving grace is that the two buys before R2 struggled also (two 75's). With an average price on the 8 sells of 34 we need the surviving four to average 20th place to have the 8 sells break even although we do have the cushion of our two buys sitting at a 50 M/U at the moment.)

Buy Charl Schwartzel at 29 with Spreadex M/U 17.5, Loss 5.75 pts
Buy Darren Fichardt at 28 with Spreadex M/U 35, Profit 3.5 pts
Both of these are a play on price. With both players out later in the day tomorrow and the leaderboard quite compact I feel both players should be just a little higher than they are. 

Pre Round One Trades (Summary: Our morning players all finished -1 bar Randhawa who is +1 and in the afternoon Romero shot +3, Kjeldsen -3 and Lane another -1. At the moment therefore no one is safe, although Kjeldsen should be, but Romero isn't totally out of it. As is normal the cut will have a huge bearing on the outcome of our bets.)

Sell Joakim Haeggman at 30.2 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 9.9 pts
Joakim is the defending champion and that followed up a 4th place in his last visit here in 02'. His current form is average with his last two strokeplay finishes being close to the price on offer this week. Therefore, the course form tips the balance and in a weaker field than Dubai last week 30 is quite high, certainly a good couple of points higher than what is being offered elsewhere so we should take this offer up.

Sell Anders Hansen at 31 with Sporting Index M/U 29, Profit 1 pt
Similar reasoning here with Hansen having excellent course form with four Top 20's out of five with his best return 8th in 2001. Current form like Haeggman is average, but he has cleared this quote in each of his last three starts and in possibly better company. This is a week when sell prices seem better value than buys and in the more centrally priced players rather than the top end favourites. At 30+ Hansen is a fair bet.

Sell Alastair Forsyth at 35 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.5 pts
Doha is a quirky course where experience can count and Forsyth took 3 seasons before he made the cut. Then he finished 18th on that 3rd visit in 2004 and is back this year for another attempt. Current form is ok, he has made his last three cuts although finished down the field in Dubai but has posted four Top 10's in his last ten Euro events, another value bet at anything over 33.

Sell Soren Kjeldsen at 35 with Sporting Index M/U 43.5, Loss 4.25 pts
Soren has played here ever year since 98 and last year was the first time he had missed a cut. His best return is 2nd with a 7th the following year. He was a fast finishing 9th last week so comes into this event in some form. Kjeldsen is a player who doesn't miss many cuts but really doesn't hit a high Top 10 % much either so is regularly priced in the mid 30s. He can be a risky bet so I wouldn't take much less than this price.

Sell Gary Evans at 35.8 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Loss 7.1 pts
8th here two years ago, Evans has been off the course with injuries since last July. Therefore to come back last week and finish 40th in a quality field was a fairly impressive result. At only four places lower, a poorer field and the rustiness hopefully gone, Evans is value to trade at this price. 

Sell Eduardo Romero at 37 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 6.5 pts
After losing on Romero last week we will give him another chance and put it down to rustiness. 3rd and 4th in his last visits here shows that there is no arguing over course form, so we will take last week as a blip and hope that time will prove that this quote is way too high.

Sell Barry Lane at 37 with Sporting Index M/U 6, Profit 15.5 pt
This is the first trade today where the player doesn't have good course form, however Lane seems overpriced by a point or two still. His 2005 record is ok averaging just under this quote but although possibly the weakest of our picks I think 37 is a worthy trade. Do not take less though than 36. 

Sell Jyoti Randhawa at 33 with Sporting Index M/U 13.5, Profit 9.75 pt
A play on current form where Randhawa followed up a 2nd in Malaysia with an 11th in a totally different environment in the Middle East. That has given me the confidence to play him this week when normally Randhawa at 33 outside Asia wouldn't be a great price. Course wise Jyoti played here in 99' and missed the cut with ease so really this is all about how he is playing just now.