Scottish Open

Bets: 5  Wins:  4  Losses:  1  Profit/Loss = +39 Pts. A great week for us as Mickelson seemed to go through the motions from the minute he realised he wasn't going to be a contender this week. Closing Goosen didn't pay off this week but that type of trade would in the long term. Ferrie possibly suffered a delayed mental reaction to last week's win and fell away tamely.

Finishing Positions

Pre Round Three Trades

Buy Phil Mickelson at 29 with Spreadex M/U 46.5, Profit 8.75 Pts
I'm not a great fan of doubling up on the one player but this price is wrong pure and simple. This means we now have a double play at 23 with Mickelson currently 54th. He should be mid 30's but maybe the firms are pricing him on the idea that punters will expect a low score tomorrow. This is of course possible but it would take a low score just to get to 23rd place as he wouldn't be the only one shooting low.

Pre Round Two Trades

Buy Phil Mickelson at 17 with Sporting Index M/U 46.5, Profit 14.75 Pts

Buy Kenneth Ferrie at 29 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Profit 10.5 Pts

Sell Retief Goosen at 29 with Sporting Index M/U 46.5, Loss 8.75 Pts
Firstly, I am advising a close of Goosen as apart from a 5 hole stretch today where his game collapsed he was -5 for the other 13 holes. He should make the weekend and I reckon his expected average finish from the current position the field is in is slightly less than the 29 you can close at. The other two are players who have started really well but the prices just seem a bit low considering we are only 1/4 of the way into the event.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Retief Goosen at 19 with Sporting Index M/U 46.5, Profit 13.75 Pts
The case for Goosen this week has been put elsewhere and I cannot argue that reasoning. However, many players last week had their swing severely tested in the wind, and with a half decent field here this week, Goosen should arguably be a couple of points higher. Sporting Index go that difference lower than IG and there can be two reasons for this. One is that they feel Goosen will have a good week and do not wish to attract too many punters in support. The other is the possibility that they will attract interest on players like Els and Goosen from smaller clients no matter what price they offer so why not offer a poor one. Whatever the reason, Goosen should not be lower than 20 in this event pre-start.