| Bets: 11 Wins: 4
Losses: 7 Profit/Loss = +8.45 Pts.
A small win overall with Mickelson showing again that he can
lose interest when out of it and Els continuing to look anything
but a World No. 3 player. Some losses incurred on Poulter,
Campbell and Clarke who all performed well over the weekend but
the wins were bigger than the losses. Pre Round Three Trades
Buy Ernie Els FP at 19 with
Spreadex for 0.5 Pts
M/U 37, Profit 9 Pts
Buy Adam Scott FP at 26 with
Spreadex for 0.5 Pts
M/U 37, Profit 5.5 Pts
Buy Iain Poulter FP at 34 with
Spreadex for 0.5 Pts
M/U 12.5, Loss 10.75 Pts
Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez FP at 29 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 50,
Profit 10.5 Pts
Buy Darren Clarke FP at 30 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U
18.5, Loss 5.75 Pts
Prices tonight show that there will be "once a season"
punters willing to back well known players at any price. All
five of these well known players in the current leaderboard on a
normal event would probably be a couple of points higher than
they are. These two firms have offered prices possibly on the
basis that punters may be looking for a big R3 from each of
these players and then give them the opportunity to trade out
tomorrow night. They may of course get their wish but we have
the value.
Pre Round Two Trades
Sell Tiger Woods over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 6 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 7,
Loss 0.5 Pts
The two best players in the world, with Singh 3 behind but
almost certain to make the cut and having a preferable tee time
compared to Woods tomorrow. Therefore, Tiger should be no more
than 4 to 4.5pt favourite at the current state of play,
certainly not as high as 6.
Buy Michael Campbell FP at 23 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 7.5,
Loss 7.75 Pts
For some reason, the spread firms have put up a really low quote
for Campbell at 23 when the likes of Jimenez is 26 and McDowell
29 on the same score. I would argue that Campbell has not yet
proved that he is on a different level after his major win,
although of course he may do so.
Buy Mark Hensby FP at 21 with
Spreadex for 0.5 Pts
M/U 18.5, Loss 1.25 Pts
Hensby played extremely well today in the worst of the
weather but 21 is low for an unproven player in a major with 3
rounds to go. He does have an early start tomorrow and could get
a bit of distance from the field but equally he could easily
fall back into the pack.
Buy Retief Goosen FP at 14 with
Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 7.5,
Loss 3.25 Pts
Betting on price here. 14 is low considering he is out a little
later tomorrow and there are 3 rounds to go. Also, we have
around 20 players within a shot of Goosen or better so he should
be high teens.
Pre Round One Trades
Sell Jim Furyk over Davis Love III 72H MB at -0.6 with
Cantor Spreadfair for 0.5 Pts M/U
2, Loss 1.3 Pts
Our 2nd bet for the Open is on Davis Love giving up a 0.6 stroke
handicap against Furyk. Their Open record couldn't be more
different with Furyk missing his last four cuts and Love
finishing Top 25 all four times. In fact if you had taken this
bet each of the last four years you would have an average M/U in
Love's favour of 17. Furyk has of course won recently but Love
has posted form figures of 4/cut/2/6 in his last four events, so
all in all this is a bet where value is most definitely on the
side of supporting Love.
Please note: Furyk is the first named player on
the Cantor site so therefore we sell him at a negative number.
Buy Phil Mickelson FP at 22 with
IG Sport
for 0.5 Pts M/U 50, Profit 14 Pts
I wasn't expecting to oppose Mickelson again so soon but this
price is just too low. His Open record is poor bar last years'
3rd although his best previous was 11th on this course. However,
there are enough question marks over Mickelson including another
poor Scottish Open in the lead up to the event to suggest the
stats are on our side by buying at 22. |
