Volvo Masters

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Garcia 2nd
Howell 38th
Casey 15th

If Garcia could putt only half as well as Monty, he would have walked this event! Same old failings with Garcia, though he was a heavy odds-on favourite to win early in the final round. Impressive performance from McGinley once he assumed the lead, but he was never put under pressure. Howell struggled throughout and so did Casey, but only once he had taken sole possession of the lead on the first day.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Sergio Garcia to win 15/2 @ Stan James and BetInternet
Backing a player who has yet to finish outside the top-5 in Europe in the last 14 months and that includes a rate of a win every third European start, one of which came in Spain. And it is in front of his home crowd that Garcia has excelled: since the start of the 2002 season, he has won twice in Spain with an average finishing position of 6th, compared to an average finishing position (max 50) of 26th outside Spain. On this course, he has played in each of its last five staged events (including two WGC events), finishing no worse than 7th. So having finished very strongly with a 66 last week to finish 2nd in Mallorca, he is perfectly set up to win this week.

David Howell to win 18/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Howell's form in Europe is almost as good with top-6 finishes in six of his last eight starts in Europe, plus top-6 finishes in the two WGC events held in the last two months. Importantly, one of those resulted in a win - BMW International Open - and in terms of form alone he should be able to match last year's top-5 finish on this course.

Paul Casey to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
While the other two selections were playing in San Francisco two weeks ago, Casey's fall down the world rankings since his "Americans" outburst eleven months ago should mean that he is well-rested and very keen to be playing this week. All the moreso since his return to form in September. In his last three starts, he has finished 3rd and 7th and was in 6th place heading into the final, blustery round of the Dunhill Links Championship. With a top-15 finish in each start in Spain since the beginning of the 2003, including twice on this course, he is another who should be in contention late this week.