Celtic Manor Wales Open

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Howell 36th
Dredge 36th
Jacquelin 17th

Not very impressive ... again!

Further outright play (total stake: 1.5pts)

Raphael Jacquelin to win 28/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Six shots behind a very inexperienced leader, with Miguel Angel Jimenez being the main opponent in the pack in front, but he leads Jacquelin by only three shots and his recent form has been very indifferent. Jacquelin could have even been one shot better off, but missed a three-foot putt for birdie on the last hole today. It was a round in which he plays much better than on Thursday and there is no weakness in any part of his game according to the stats. Fully expect at least half of the players ahead of him to fall away tomorrow and his experience should come to the fore and maybe he finally go one better than all those 2nd place finishes he has had since last year.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

David Howell to win 12/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
After finishing of 2nd, 2nd and 4th and with two of those being playoff losses, Howell is clearly the form player on Tour at the moment and his runs of top-10 finishes on the Tour over the last couple of years show that he is capable of continuing this form rather than becoming frustrated at his failure to win. This is a new course that is being used, though it will give him added confidence that he has finished in the top-5 twice on the previous course used at the Celtic Manor Resort and it a short course (par-69) on which putting ability will be of paramount importance and this is the strongest part of his game - he ranks 1st in putts per round. Finally, although he now lives in Weybridge, he should be able to draw on a lot of home support from Swindon which is only one hour's drive away, so while I never expected to be backing 'Howeller' at 12/1, he does look set for at least a place finish.

Bradley Dredge to win 28/1 e.w. available generally
Dredge has the same type of game as Howell - he ranks 3rd in putts per round and 2nd in the Tour's 'total putting' category - and that is important on a course with five par-3s and only two par-5s. In fact, Dredge ranked 1st in par-3 scoring last week, so this should be the type of course on which he can continue his very consistent form, which included a 2nd place finish in the Italian Open last month. A 'home' player from Cardiff who should also draw on good support and another player with a good record at this resort - two top-10 finishes in the last three years - there are a lot of similarities between Howell and Dredge and while he is far less likely to win, this is borne out in the odds.

Brian Davis to win 30/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods (28/1 available generally)
Given that he shot 76-80 to miss the cut around Wentworth last week and had missed the cut in his three visits to the old course, I would have expected bigger odds on Davis, but there is still value here. The new course should suit his game much more. He has ranked in the top-5 in par-3 scoring in the last three cuts that he has made - two of which were on the PGA Tour - and he was top-ranked in both putts per round and putts per green in regulation at the Forest of Arden when he finished 2nd, he previous start to last week's missed cut. A repeat of that form looks likely on this course and he will certainly be glad that the event has moved to a new venue.