Celtic Manor Wales Open

Finishing Positions (0.5 Pt Stakes)

Bets:  16    Wins:   8   Losses:  8   Profit/Loss = 18 Pts. Another week where getting the best of the weather on the final day allowed players we had opposed who were down the field to climb up without actually scoring that well. In the end though, we done ok, especially the trading of Howell.

Pre Round Four Trades

Buy Simon Khan at 39 with Spreadex M/U 50, Profit 5.5 Pts
Usually R4 quotes are spot on but this one arguably isn't. A couple of points higher elsewhere means the quote will probably change as the evening goes on but if you can take the 39 and at a push take 40 on a player who would MU at 50 if the event was to end just now. There are enough players around about his score to suggest he is likelier to finish above 39 than below it, and even if he does it would take a 65 to get into the Top 20.

Pre Round Three Trades

Buy David Howell at 32 with Spreadex M/U 39.5, Profit 3.75 Pts

Buy Paul McGinley at 34 with Spreadex M/U 48.5, Profit 7.25 Pts

Buy Bradley Dredge at 31 with Spreadex M/U 39.5, Profit 4.25 Pts

Buy Soren Kjeldsen at 38.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex M/U 20, Loss 9.25 Pts

Buy Soren Hansen at 35 with Sporting Index M/U 32.5, Loss 1.25 Pts

Buy Paul Broadhurst at 39 with IG Sport M/U 20, Loss 9.5 Pts
Six trades where all are value due to the fact that 80 players made the weekend so 30 of them will M/U at the maximum, so all of these players are priced lower than their true value. Note, though, that the Howell trade is only to be placed if you closed the initial trade (unless you wish to be brave !!!!)

Pre Round Two Trades

Sell Stephen Dodd at 40 with Sporting Index M/U 50, Loss 5 Pts

Sell David Howell at 39 with Sporting Index M/U 39.5, Loss 0.5 Pts
Going to close these two trades as I feel that the prices offered are probably slightly higher than their true value and we therefore can take around 17 pts profit now without fear of one or both of them putting in a good round tomorrow. Obviously both could M/C but the value is in closing rather than running.

Buy Miguel Angel Jimenez at 13 with Spreadex M/U 1, Loss 6 Pts

Buy Henrik Stenson at 29 with Spreadex M/U 39.5, Profit 5.25 Pts

Buy Nick Dougherty at 23 with IG Sport M/U 13, Loss 5 Pts
Three further plays based on price where with 6 shots separating 1st to the cut line and 87 players in that spread, these prices are fair on players on -6, -2, and -4 respectively.

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Thomas Bjorn at 22 with IG Sport M/U 50, Profit 14 Pts
A bit like Toms in the other event, Bjorn has good recent form but has thrown in enough bad weeks this year to suggest that the price is low. This is a par 69 course where the ability to get it on to the right part of undulating greens is important and then the ability to putt that follows. I would pitch Bjorn just a couple of points higher given that a good week with the flat stick is necessary to get in the Top 20.

Buy Michael Campbell at 27.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 15.5, Loss 6.05 Pts

Buy David Howell at 19.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 39.5, Profit 9.45 Pts

Buy Stephen Dodd at 26.6 with Cantor Spreadfair M/U 50, Profit 11.12 Pts
Three more trades on popular players in form who are being priced on that fact more-so than all the factors that come into the mix. As stated above, all 150 players this week need to be very precise on a short tight course where their short game is paramount and although, of course, these players are all excellent short game players and in form you could find yourself struggling to catch up if getting off to a slow start. In all cases these players are 2pts+ too short.