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Spread Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

   

BMW International Open

 Spread Betting News (Sporting Index)

Summary: 7 Bets, 4 Wins, 3 Losses. Profit 20.38 Pts

Tournament Trades

Buy Ian Poulter FP at 28 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts M/U 75, Profit 18.8 Pts
Poulter has played on this course 6 times and his average under the modified scoring system that Sporting use is 15pts higher than his buy price this week. He is on the fringes of the Ryder Cup team but the added pressure of trying to impress the Captain this week can affect his game in two ways and if it is a negative effect we could return a good profit. His average European mainland average in 06' is 40 in 8 events so in both current and course stats his price does not justify previous results, and to be quoted at a lower price than the likes of Goosen, Harrington, Monty, Bjorn and Stenson is just silly. 

Buy Luke Donald FP at 24 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts M/U 6.5 Loss 7 Pts
Luke Donald has played this event the last two years and has finished 20th and 11th in that time. You have to factor in all eventualities in an FP betting and a quality field this week means his price is just a little low although he does have a 4 in 5 record on this tour of beating 24th. 

Sell Ian Poulter over Niclas Fasth 72H MB at 2.45 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts M/U -12, Profit 5.78 Pts
Fasth, as Stanley points out in the "outright" preview, has 7 Top 12 places in his last 8 attempts in Germany and is coming into a little form again in his last couple of events. He should not be a 2+ point underdog on 72H Match betting against Poulter who we could easily oppose on so many different markets this week. That is not to say that he can't be successful and cost us money, but we are betting to probability here and his FP should be mid 30's and at the most 1pt favourite over Fasth.

Round One Trades

Sell Lee Slattery over Miguel Angel Martin at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 22, Loss 2.8 Pts
Head to heads since early 2005 sees a 14-11 tournament lead and a 13-9-3 R1 scoring lead for Martin and although we have to accept that Slattery is improving, as shown by a 4-2 lead this year, the price is too high. To give an example from this weeks prices, Luke Donald is a similar price to beat Ian Woosnam and the gap in quality between those two players is a lot bigger than the two involved in this match.

Sell Johan Edfors over Bernhard Langer at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -16, Profit 3.6 Pts
Langer's form is on the wane as he winds down towards being eligable for the Seniors circuit but he is still competitive when playing in his native country, as shown by results of 5th and 12th in his last four starts in Germany. Edfors is very much a hit and miss player and has an outside chance of getting into the Ryder Cup team which may affect him this week. In 06' Edfors has three wins, but in each occasion has tailed off dramatically immediately following those wins with results of mc/49/56/45 after the first, then 60/mc/mc after his Befry win and since his Scottish Open win mc/45/mc/mc/62.

Sell Simon Dyson over Bernhard Langer at 4 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U -19, Profit 4.6 Pts
Reasons for supporting Langer are posted above but the reason to double up on him against Dyson as well as Edfors is as usual based on the favourite's price being too high. These are definitely two players going in different directions in their career but a fair price would be a couple of points lower. Langer has won 4 of the 6 events they have both played in since January 2005 and has superior course form with Dyson shooting 62 in R4 last year to get a Top 10 placing which is by far the best of 5 visits where the next best was 24th. Langer has played this course 8 times since 1997 with results of 12/4/15/2/16/2/23/47 and although allowances have to be given for results that happened years ago he has shown he is a contender on this layout.


Sell Jarmo Sandelin over Nick Dougherty at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 16, Loss 2.6 Pts
This is possibly the first ever time i've supported Dougherty in any bet as he tends to be over-rated by the bookmakers, but this week we get the chance to support him due to him being in the worst form of his life. Eight missed cuts in a row and up against a player who has posted two Top 20's recently maybe suggests at face value Sandelin should be an even bigger favourite than he is, but i still think the price is slightly wrong. Their H2H stats show a 17-8 lead for Dougherty over 18 months and a 37-20 all rounds lead even allowing for results over the last 3 months so the trade seems worth it at 3 but certainly not much less.