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Summary: Bets 5, Losses 5. Loss 28.8 Pts. Horrendous week on this tour although results on the two other tours should cover the losses here. Tournament Trades Buy Angel Cabrera FP at 30 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts
M/U 16, Loss 5.6 Pts
Everything points to a good week for the big Argentinian player after a 7th place at Royal Liverpool. His course form is good as well with a 2nd place here last year. However, it has to be noted that his average FP on Sporting scoring over 5 attempts here is 40 and his average in 06 on this tour is 33. His price on the conventional scoring is 27 to buy and that is a bit nearer the mark as the Sporting price in comparison to that should be around 33. Buy Anthony Wall FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.4 Pts. M/U 19.5, Loss 5.4 Pts Wall is in a great run of form this year and has some fair form on the course posting two top 20's in four starts. His course average though is still around about his price this week and his average on this tour in FP's, although obviously improving, is still higher than 34 in what is one of the better fields of the European season. In three years Wall has had less than 1 in 10 Top 10's and missed more than 1 in 3 cuts. Buy Robert Karlsson FP at 33 with IG Sport for 0.4 Pts M/U 1, Loss 12.8 Pts Three missed cuts in four starts on this course suggest Karlsson is not suited to the layout as he does make 3 in 4 cuts generally on this tour. With that in mind and a recent record that has been excellent, it means that firms have the tough decision to pitch a price that absorbs both. Arguably, in this field, the price could be a little higher. Round One Trades
Sell Andrew Coltart over Costantino Rocca at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 19, Loss 1.8 Pts In head to heads between these two players, Rocca leads 10-9 in R1 matches over the last 18 months and course results show both averaging 38 in FP and posting very similar results over the 5 times they have played here. Rocca is obviously not the player he once was but this price suggests Coltart is a far superior player to the Italian veteran. He isn't and shouldnt be as big as favourite as Sporting imply in their price. Sell Johan Edfors over Paul Mcginley at 0 with IG Sport for 0.2 Pts M/U 16, Loss 3.2 Pts McGinley leads his oppoent 14-3 in H2H's over 18 months and although Edfors is a far better player now, having won 3 events this year, he shouldn't be clear favourite over the Irishman. McGinley has three top 10's in six starts here which means that course form can be added to H2H form with some confidence. |
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