Spread Picks - European Tour |
Tipster: Andy |
|
Summary. Very poor results on 18s covered by a successful
week on the FP's. Bets 9, Wins 4, Losses 5, Profit 16.02 Pts.
Tournament Trades
Buy Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano FP at 30.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.4 Pts
M/U 50, Profit 11.29 Pts
Last week’s winner has the mental high that the win will bring along with the long travel entailed in getting back to his native tournament so he may be a bit rusty this week. Since the start of the 05’ season, Castano has played on European soil 19 times, his record is one win, one further top 10 and 12 maximum M/U’s on FP scoring. His average FP is over 40 in those events so although he comes off of a win that may lead to an upturn in his career, he is value at the price offered. Note though that when he won the last time in Holland he failed to make the Top 40 in his next 6 events.
Buy Ricardo Gonzalez FP at 24.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.4 Pts
M/U 47.5, Profit 13.17 Pts
Gonzalez has 2 wins and a 2nd in Spain, and is on a run of good form currently. However, included with the two wins and a 2nd are a number of poor performances including 5 finishes above this weeks quote in his last 6 events in this country. Of course, he does have excellent current form but all of this has possibly been factored into the price just a little too much. His FP average on European soil is the same as Castano’s in the same time span.
Buy Simon Wakefield FP at 41 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts
M/U 76, Profit 14 Pts
Here we have another player who has good current form but when you step back and look at his full set of results you realise that the quote given possibly over estimates the recent run. 4th and 24th in Madeira and Portugal is a big improvement in Wakefield’s general results over the last 16 months. In 22 starts he has 3 Top 10’s and apart from the aforementioned 24th, a 34th in Madrid, and a 25th in Scandinavia, his other results, all 16, have been M/U’s of 50 in the conventional FP scoring system. This is an average FP of 41. However, on the new scoring system employed at Sporting his average is 49 and therefore the 5 points extra you have to pay at Sporting becomes value.
Round One Trades
Sell Jose-Filipe Lima over Phillip Price 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 40, Loss 7.4 Pts
Sell Darren Fichardt over Phillip Price 18H MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 22, Loss 4 Pts
A double play getting with Price here as he shouldn’t be as heavy an underdog at the prices Spreadex offer. Head to head R1 matches show a 3-1 lead over Lima but a 0-2 loss to Fichardt this year. Price tried his hand in the US without success in 05’ and that may have influenced prices here as well as the fact he has missed his last two cuts. All in all though, Price, long term, has been a better player than both his opponents and even allowing for the current form level he should be no more than 1-4 underdog against both.
Sell Ross Fisher over Miguel Angel Martin 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts
M/U 28, Loss 5 Pts
We have opposed Fisher a few times this season and always for the same reason that the firms are pricing him on potential rather than results. 45th and 24th in the two mainland events played this year Fisher shows a h2h score of 6-5-1 lead in all rounds played when both players have played the same event. Like the Price match-ups, Fisher should be 1-4.
Sell Francesco Molinari over Soren Hansen 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 34, Loss 6.8 Pts
A MC in Portugal in his last event for Molinari ended a good run of results where he had posted three Top 20’s in a row. Hansen meanwhile hasn’t done a great deal this year so far with only one Top 20 posted. However, Hansen is a better player than Molinari and results like H2H results of 14-7 on tournaments and 14-6-2 in R1 plays since early 2005 suggest this. Hansen should be favourite here, not Molinari.
Sell John Bickerton over Peter Hedblom 18H MB at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -13, Profit 2.8 Pts
H2H’s between these two show a 32-29-4 round lead for Hedblom and a 14-12 Tournament lead in the last 16 months. Current form shows Hedblom struggling with only three cuts made this year but bar a 4th in Malaysia in February Bickerton hasn’t fared a great deal better. Hedblom with at least a 1pt start is value.
Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Niclas Fasth 18H MB at 2.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.2 Pts
M/U 13, Loss 2.04 Pts
Jimenez only finished 49th last week in China after playing well at Augusta. With all the travel involved coming back to Spain he may be worth opposing on day 1 with Fasth who has two Top 20’s in his last two outings which were both in European events. H2H’s sees Fasth lead 7-5 since early 05’ and 22-18-2 on rounds so with a 2.8 start it is a good addition to a fairly large list of bets this week. |
