FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Garcia 4th
Dyson 12th
Canizares mc

A decent performance by Garcia over the first two days, but he played poorly over the weekend and with Dredge never put under pressure, the Welshman won in impressive style. With Dyson it was a case of one bad round. He finished just two shots out of a top-5 place, but shot 74 on Friday.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Sergio Garcia to win 11/2 @ BetInternet
When the 2nd favourite in the market is a 42-year-old who hasn't finished in the top-40 in any event since June, there really is a gulf in class between Garcia and the rest of the field. It is largely a matter of how much he wants to win this one. He has a home near the course and has played in this event in each of the last three years, finishing 19th, 3rd and then 1st last year against a much stronger field (Luke Donald, Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson). He is in good form with top-5 finishes in the last two majors and is a 4.8/1 shot by my calculations, so there is value even at such short odds.

Simon Dyson to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Another player in good form. He has finished in the top-10 in five of his last ten starts (plus an 11th place) and that includes a win at the KLM Open last month. With decent course form (made the cut on all four previous visits, including one top-5 finish), he looks a solid selection in this company.

Alejandro Canizares to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral
Tied with Paul Casey and behind only Billy Mayfair and Phil Mickelson in most collegiate tournament wins by an Arizona State University player, the son of Jose Maria Canizares looked destined for a good professional career once graduating this summer, but no-one could have predicted the impact he has made. He made the cut in his first event on the European Tour as a professional in the Deutsche Bank Players' Championship of Europe, finished 7th in his next event, the KLM Open, and then won his next event, the Russian Open. And if that were not enough, he surged into the lead of the BMW International Open last week during the third round, only to come unstuck thereafter. He has beaten a lot of Europe's best players over the last month and they are not here this week. As a Tour rookie, he does not have the benefit of course experience, but that has not been an insurmountable hurdle this summer and 40/1 looks very large for such a promising player.