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Summary: 3 Bets, 1 Win, 2 Losses, Profit 5 Pts Tournament Trades Buy Markus Brier FP at 39 with Sporting Index for 0.4 Pts. M/U 67, Profit 11.2 Pts Two Top 10's in his last two starts and two thirteenth places here a few years ago means that Brier is trading quite low at Sporting Index this week. I would pitch his price though in the low 40's given that he has missed nearly one in two cuts on this tour in the last three years. Spreadex go 31-34 which is probably a fairer reflection of his chances on the normal 50 max system, but at 39 with a possible M/U going to as high as the mid 70's he is worth opposing this week. Round One Trades Buy Nick Dougherty over Michelle Wie 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts. M/U -13, Loss 3.8 Pts The Michelle Wie circus comes to our town this week and Sporting have over estimated her chances of beating Dougherty which is surely based more on the current poor form of the Liverpudlian. Talented Wie may be, but Dougherty, even out of form, should be around 5-8 to 6-9 and should be traded at the 6 on offer. A caveat must be offered though that this is his attempt this week to avoid the embarrassment of 10 missed cuts in a row, but all things considered he should be higher priced than he is. Sell Johan Edfors over Robert-Jan Derksen 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.2 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.4 Pts Continuing the opposition of Edfors who is regularly priced on his 3 wins this season rather than on his other results which have produced no other Top 10 places. Since his win at Loch Lomond, Edfors has finishes of cut, 45, cut, cut, 62, 68, whilst Derksen finshed 8th last week at the BMW. |
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