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Outright Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

   

European Open 

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FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Cabrera 17th
Campbell mc
Green 20th

Easy to blame the difficult weather conditions, but Cabrera should have done better. He was 3rd after the 1st round, but then shot 78; got himself back into contention in the 3rd round, but had three straight bogies at the end of that round; and got himself back into contention and only two shots off the lead on Sunday, but had two bogies and a double-bogey in the last five holes to finish four shots out of a place finish.

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Angel Cabrera to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Other than a victory in Argentina, the week after finished 8th in the Masters, Cabrera has not lived up to expectations this year, but there is clear evidence that this will soon change. He entered the weekend in 3rd place at Wentworth five weeks ago, finished 26th in the U.S. Open three weeks ago and shot 66 in the final round of the Open de France last week to finish 12th. But behind these figures lies not only long driving, but very good play from tee to green - he ranked 3rd in that category in the U.S. Open and 6th last week - and that is central around both courses at the K Club. When this course was first used in 2004, he finished 8th and that was his third consecutive top-10 finish in this event. He should do the same this week.

Michael Campbell to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
These inflated odds must surely be a product of his failings last week rather than an acknowledgement that he was probably the best golfer on view. He looked to be running away with the event until hitting two shots out of bounds on the penultimate hole of his 3rd round and taking a triple-bogey and he still had a shot at the title on the last hole before his all-or-nothing shot ended up in the water. How he reacts to that is key to the value in these odds and I would be very surprised if the 2005 U.S. Open Champion did not continue the fine form that he displayed for so much of last week's event. He missed the cut on this course in 2004, but he had done so in two of his last three events and was clearly not playing as well as currently or as confident as he has been since that famous win. And, after all, he did win this event in 2002, as well as the Irish Open the following year.

Richard Green to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Sticking with Green after his near-miss last week. He has still finished 14th, 4th and 7th in his last three European Tour events and in Nick O'Hern-style, he does keep appearing on that leaderboard, even if not in first position. That was to prove elusive in 2004 when he started the weekend 13 shots behind Retief Goosen, but a 66-66 finish saw him finish 2nd. That second Tour win may continue to be elusive, but in this form, he is still backable at these odds.