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Summary: Bets 5, Wins 2, Losses 3. Loss 10.56 Pts Tournament Trades Buy Robert Karlsson FP at 33.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.4 Pts
M/U 18.5, Loss 5.96 Pts
Karlsson has missed his last two cuts here and although he has now posted four Top 20's in a row on this tour, this run may end this week at Le Golf National. Karlsson started off the year averagely, posting one top 10 before May when he started on this 4 event run that has transformed his season. His long term stats show a 1 in 3 top 25 placing and a similar stat for cuts missed leaving an average similar to his price this week. However, with his poor course form to allow for, 33.4 is possibly the best offer of those at the top end of the market. Buy Ian Poulter FP at 29 with IG Sport for 0.4 Pts M/U 4, Loss 10 Pts Poulter is another player with poor form round this course. 73/55/30/14 is admittedly going in the right direction, but its still an average FP of over 36. Poulter's form in the States is excellent currently and although that helps in a way in his bid for the Ryder Cup team, it is money earned in Europe that will contribute more. His record in Europe is much poorer, with results of 14/60/cut in three events played in May and very little other form to go on in European co-sanctioned events, that contributes to the cause, earlier in the year. Round One Trades
Sell Jean-Francois Lucquin over Eduardo Romero 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 16, Loss 2.4 Pts Sell Johan Edfors over Eduardo Romero 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -25, Profit 5.8 Pts Getting with our old favourite, Romero, is his 2 match-ups tomorrow. "The Cat" has a 9-4 Tournament record over Lucquin since 05' although against Edfors is 0 from 2 this year. They never played the same event in 05' but did play 7 in 04' in which Romero won all of them. This shows of course that Edfors is on the up and normally I wouldnt consider Romero with only a 4pt start. However, his course form is good with finishes of 6-60-8 in his last 3 starts which compares favourably with cut-40-cut for Lucquin and a missed cut for Edfors. In the other match, 4 is a very good price against a much lesser player than Edfors in Lucquin. Buy Ian Poulter over Jean Van De Velde 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.2 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2 Pts Strangely, we support Poulter in a match having opposed him in the tournament. This is all down to the price of the Frenchman, where too much of the "home open" factor has been built into his price. Poulter has a 8-2 lead in R1 scores since early 05' and a 17-9 score in all rounds. He should be around 2 pts higher at least. |
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