FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Garcia 2nd
Dredge dns
Broadhurst mc
Khan 32nd

Plenty of hope at the start of the final round with Khan six shots and Garcia three shots off the lead, but Khan didn't have a birdie all day and Garcia never got closer than two shots off the lead. Once again, it was the putter that failed him, but the greens were very poor as well. Will need to pick the winner next week if I am finish the European Tour season in profit.

Further outright play (total stake: 1pt)

Sergio Garcia 6/1 @ Expekt, Ladbrokes, Boyle Sports and Coral
Dredge's withdrawal means an opportunity to back the player that I was originally going to back before seeing the odds on Dredge. And now that Dredge has withdrawn there is even better value on Garcia at 6/1. With players battling for the Order of Merit having a poor record in these end-of-season events, Harrington and Karlsson should also be discounted, leaving Garcia as a stronger favourite than the 6/1 odds suggest. He has finished 1st and 2nd on this course in the last two years and no worse than 2nd in any event in Spain over the last two seasons. Add in some good form recently, the lack of a trans-Atlantic trip after these Spanish events to distract him from focussing on his home events and more than enough ability to win this event with ease, and he warrants a second look.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Bradley Dredge to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetInternet  * VOID  *
Was seriously considering Garcia at 6/1 given his record in Spain and the fact that he will not be returning to the U.S. to play in the Tour Championship, but first Stan James' 22/1 and now BetInternet's 25/1 on Dredge is enough to sway me. True, he surrendered a one-shot lead during the final round of the Dunhill Link Championship, but he did win the European Masters, so finishes of 1st and 2nd in his last two events is not too bad. And then there is his course form. He has only made his debut here last year, but despite an opening 72 that saw him outside the cut mark, he still finished in the top-5. That makes 25/1 good value.

Paul Broadhurst to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Ladbrokes and BetFred
Good course form is certainly a major factor behind the last two selections as well. In the three years of this event at Pula Golf Club, Broadhurst has finished 5th, 7th and 2nd. And having already won this year on the Iberian Peninsula (Algarve Open de Portugal) and showed a good return to form with a top-10 finish last time out in the Dunhill Links Championship, he should be a player to watch this week.

Simon Khan to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Khan's course history is almost as good: 5th, 2nd and 21st. In 2003, the tournament was reduced to 54 holes with Khan just three shots off the lead; in 2004, he led the event after the 2nd and 3rd round, but couldn't hold off both Sergio and the crowd in the final group on Sunday; and last year, he was in 4th place heading into the weekend. As with Broadhurst, there were encouraging signs in his last outing when finishing 15th in the Dunhill Links Championship, but it is the warmer climes of Spain that he should be fully competitive once again.