FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +11.38pts

Stenson 1st
Gonzalez 4th
Randhawa wd

With Stenson & Gonzalez in the first two positions after each of the opening two rounds, this always looked like being a profitable event. In the end, Stenson showed his class to remain in the lead at the end of every round and win by three shots. Gonzalez, on the other hand, showed why he was a 50/1 shot with some erratic play and when the full payout on the place money looking assured, he bogeyed the penultimate hole and failed to birdie the par-5 last hole.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Henrik Stenson to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetFred and BetDirect
He did lose a one-shot lead heading into the final round last week, but it a very impressive duel with Chris DiMarco and there is certainly on suggestion that he 'bottled' it. He did, after all, set a new course record last week with a 62 on Saturday so there should, once again, be no doubts about Stenson's form. As far the letdown of missing out on the title, he has held the lead heading into the final round and finished 2nd on two occasions in the last year and on both occasions, he finished 3rd in his next start. One of those occasions was on this course twelve months ago when Ernie Els shot 65 in the final round to pip him by a single shot. To put that 65 into context, the second-best score that day was 68. He has been more than unlucky with his share of opponents in final round charges and he is due some luck this week.

Ricardo Gonzalez to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Gonzalez kept himself busy over the off-season with a couple of Tour de Las Americas events in Argentina in which he finished 5th and 6th and brought that form with him to the UAE last week where he was in contention throughout, finally finishing in 4th place. It is quite a contrast to last year when he struggled to make cuts for the first eight months of the year, but he is playing with much more confidence now and should, at the very least, record his fifth consecutive top-20 finish at Doha this week.

Jyoti Randhawa to win 100/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Maybe I'm too stubborn to learn the lessons of last week, but is there really any comparison between a best-price of 13/2 for a top-10 finish (Stan James) and 100/1 each-way? He played extremely well last week and should again go very strong in the Middle East. In the last three years, he has a best finish of 27th and made only two of seven cuts in Europe; but in the Middle East, he has finished 13th, 11th, 12th (on this course last year) and now 6th in the last three years. Let's hope he can maintain some of his momentum from that final round 65 to edge him at least one place higher this week!