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Spread Picks - European Tour |
Tipster: Andy |
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Summary: Bets 12, Wins 12. Losses 0.
Profit 65.85 Pts.
Bet 1
Buy J J Henry Individual Player Points at 1 with Cantor Spreadfair for 2 pts.
M/U 1.5, Profit 1 Pt. Henry has a fairly good collegiate record in matchplay and strikes me as the type of player who may revel in the atmosphere of this event. The fact that we are buying at a price whereby it only takes one win to get our money back as opposed to the two or three it would take with others also appeals. The bet is, of course, no use if Henry only gets to play in the singles, but practice pairings on Tuesday suggested that Henry may get to play in the fourth match first out on Friday with Stewart Cink once the "Big 6" are paired together in the other 3 matches. If so, a win would not only see us clear the liability on the bet but will also open the door for another start in the afternoon.
Bet 2
Sell Phil Mickelson Player Performance at 42 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts.
M/U 5, Profit 18.5 Pts Mickelson's Ryder Cup record reads 9-8-3 which in the scoring system employed here by Sporting gives an average return of roughly 25 points per Ryder Cup for the 5 times he has played. An addition to the scoring is a 25 point bonus if his team win the event (10 if it's a 14-14 tie) but at current prices that allows for 10pts more giving 35 pts. I would argue that there is nothing in the Phil Mickelson of 2006 to suggest he will perform any better than in previous Cups and arguably with the match away from home, terrible weather forecast and it likely that if he did get off to a poor start that he may only get 3 starts, its a fair bet. The only downside is his pairing with Di'Marco is a good one and bar Woods/Furyk is the top US pairings hope, but the price over-emphasises the chance of the pairing being successful.
Bet 3Buy J J
Henry On the "Top Debutants Points Scorer Index" at 15 with Sporting Index for
0.5 Pts M/U 33.33, Profit 9.17 Pts.
I was hoping more firms
would have "debutant" related markets but only Sporting have come up with
one and although we already have an interest in Henry via the "points
scored" bet above, the risk is minimal so we can afford to risk a few points
more on this bet. There are six debutants and as per the information above I
am staking a good part of the value of these bets on Henry getting the nod
on Friday morning and grabbing the opportunity with both hands. If he does
get to play three times I reckon that would be the equal of at the most one
other player in the market and at least one more than the others.
Bet 4
Buy Woods/Furyk over Harrington/Montgomerie Day 1 MB at 3 with
IG Sport
for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Profit 3 Pts
The best two players in the world a week ago (Mickelson has went back to
#2 without playing this week?) against the local boy and the European
talisman. It's a tough call as you can put a case for all eventualities in
this match up but when you put them all in the mix I would expect Woods and
Furyk to win more matches than their counterparts and with the 10pts on
offer for the win I think the price offered by Sporting Index of 3-5 is
probably a better reflection of the chances of both teams.
Bet 5
Sell Stenson/Howell over Cink/Toms Day 1 MB at 2 with
IG Sport
for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.6 Pts
Disagreement between firms here with others making this a choice bet.
The only worry is its two fresh players against two who have little time for
rest but that aside I think Cink will take great heart from the way he and
Henry came back this morning from a potential large beating. 0-2 is probably
the fairest reflection of the chances of these four.
Bet 6 Sell Stenson/Harrington
over Verplank/Johnson Day 2 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts.
M/U -16, Profit 6.3 Pts
This price just seems a little too big considering that with 8 matches gone, all players have seen at least the 16th and
7 of the 8 matches have
finished down the last. Yes, the Europeans should be favourite but maybe by 2-4
or 3-5, not as much as 5-7
Bet 7
Buy Woods/Furyk over Harrington/McGinley Day 2 MB at 4 with
IG Sport
for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Profit 4.5 Pts
Yes, Woods is playing poorly, and yes, the opposition are going to have
a massive home support but playing purely the prices the favourites should
be a little more likely to win this foursomes than the price implies.
Bet 8
Buy Garcia/Donald over Mickelson/Toms Day 2 MB at 4 with
IG Sport
for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Profit 3.6 Pts
I'm surprised that this price isn't higher than it is given the form of
the Spaniard and the lack of form of Mickelson. I'm not the biggest fan of
buying in foursomes at too high a price but i expected a price of 5-7 and
"no bet". At this price we should play
Bet 9
Buy Tiger Woods over Robert Karlsson Singles MB at 6.4 with
Cantor Spreadfair
for 0.3 Pts
M/U 19, Profit 3.59 Pts
For all the poor play, the shots in the water and the missed putts, Woods is
currently, with Furyk, the top US Points scorer and knows that he has to
perform if the US team is going to make any sort of a challenge.
Bet 10
Buy
Luke Donald over Chad Campbell Singles MB at 3.4 with
Cantor Spreadfair
for 0.3 Pts
M/U 16, Profit 3.59 Pts
Donald has played in the afternoons as it was felt he was too short off the
tee for this course and possibly those beliefs have led to a price here that
is backable with the exchange. He has won the two matches he has been asked
to win, and will be raring to go and show that it wasn't down to Garcia and
that he could have contributed in the four-balls.
Bet 11
Buy
Darren Clarke over Zach Johnson Singles MB at 3.2 with
Cantor Spreadfair
for 0.3 Pts
M/U 19, Profit 4.5 Pts
Weather dictates this play to a certain extent as poorer weather today plays
into the hands of Clarke and whereby the price was value at just over 3
anyway, it may just have went up a rung or two in value. Clarke has done
everything asked of him this week and Johnson was on the wrong side of the
biggest M/U of the week so far.
Bet 12
Sell
Padraig Harrington over Scott Verplank Singles MB at 3 with
Spreadex
for 0.3 Pts
M/U -22, Profit 7.5 Pts
History dictates that players who play all four previous matches struggle
mentally in the Singles. This year Woods, Furyk, Mickelson, Cink, Westwood,
Garcia and Harrington have started all four and it will be interesting to
see the win rate of the 7 at the end of the day. The fact Harrington is out
last, when it could all be over, faces a player who won his singles in 02
and has been poor, with only one tie, suggests selling at 3 is the call.
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