FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -2.09pts

Clarke 5th
Cabrera 14th
Poulter 14th

I fail to be surprised any more. Clarke looked a world class player when surging to a three-shot lead at the cut and even though he was much less impressive on Saturday, he still shared the lead heading into the last day. And at one-third the way through Cabrera and Poulter's round the leaderboard read: Clarke 1st; Cabrera 4th; Poulter 4th. But all three players were over-par from that point onwards and final turn of the knife came when Clarke failed to get up and down from 15 feet on the last hole. Had he succeeded, there would have been a small profit on the event. As he did not, he didn't even cover his own stake money.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Darren Clarke to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
It should be helpful to look at the previous years' performances when an event is traditionally played the week before a Major. Phil Mickelson, for example, admitted that he aimed 20 feet away from the pins at the Buick Classic last month in order to leave him the range of putts that he was most likely to have at the U.S. Open the following week. So it should be worthy of note that all three selections finished in the top-5 last year and Clarke and Poulter followed that with strong performances at St. Andrews the following week. They were not using this event as a means of practice for the Open. And to Clarke's runners-up finish last year can be added another runners-up finish in 2003. He has shown enough glimpses of form this year to suggest that he is close to winning again and but for struggling on the greens yesterday in the strong winds, he could have certainly won the European Open. He should not be 25/1 this week.

Angel Cabrera to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Cabrera was a frustrating player last week. He was unlucky in that, starting the 2nd round in 3rd place, he played in the worst of the weather in the afternoon and it was always a struggle to get back into the tournament thereafter, but he did so in both the 3rd and 4th rounds, before faltering each time over the last few holes. That he came back each time is worthy of note and hopefully he will take some momentum into an event in which finished in the top-5 last year. It had looked as though he would be victorious as he led after the first round and was only one shot out of the lead after the second and third rounds, but it was not to be his 2nd European Tour victory of the season. Nevertheless, it is another demonstration that this Tom Weiskopf-designed course rewards the more attacking players such as Clarke, Cabrera and Poulter.

Ian Poulter to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
And so to Poulter. This is clearly a course that suits his game as evidenced by his finishes of 5th, 10th and 4th in the last three years. He was never in contention last week after a very unfavourable draw - he had a very late tee-time on Thursday when conditions were worse than in the morning and so he he also had a very late tee-time on Friday when the wind was starting to pick up significantly - so there is no concern that his form has been lost. That form had netted a top-10 finish in a PGA Tour event, a 12th place finish in the U.S. Open and a 3rd place finish in the Open de France in his previous three events so repetition of that form will surely see him in the top-5 yet again.