Bets 17. Wins 9. Losses 8. Profit 6.03 Pts. Better week on 18's than on FP's

Tournament Trades

R3 Trade - Closure of disaster Index at 164. The pin position today gave buyers their biggest chance of success and it just didn't happen. 63 Points from 156 entrants suggest that the 142 players playing over the following two days, who are of course a better quality as they've made the cut and are playing better than those who didn't, should do no better than high 160's. Of the players who shot under par over the two days (168 accumulated) the contribution to the total was 37.

Buy Adam Scott at 33 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 9, Loss 14.4 Pts
In 6 Open's, Scott has missed 3 cuts and failed to beat the quote in any of the 6 attempts. He is obviously a better player than those bare stats but they are not accounted for in the quote from IG. His average FP record in this event is 47.

Buy Geoff Ogilvy at 32 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 18.5, Loss 8.1 Pts
A 5th place last year after a slow start was easily Ogilvy's best result in the Open after 2 MC's in his first two appearances. This is the Australian's first start since the US Open which he won and it is difficult to determine what sort of affect his first major had on him. 32 seems a fair price to trade at with a number of question marks over him.

Buy Jim Furyk at 31 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 4, Loss 16.2 Pts
Furyk arguably has the game for the Open Championship but in the last 5 years has failed to show it with no weekend appearance since 2000. His average FP over 10 years is 37

Buy Vijay Singh at 27 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 72, Profit 27 Pts
Singh has an average FP on Sporting's scoring system of 28 whereas on normal scoring it is 23. Therefore, he is a bit of value at 27 with Sporting given that his form in 06' bears little resemblance to the form shown over the last few years. This is by no means the bet of the season but at 27 it's quite fair.

Buy Paul Casey at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 50 Profit 10.2 Pts
Three missed cuts in four starts in the Open for Casey and an average FP of 44. He always seems to have a high round in him when playing the bigger events which leads to his downfall and until he shows a regular run of form in the biggest events he will always be value to oppose.

Sell Phil Mickelson over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 0.5 with IG Sport for 1 Pt. M/U 12, Loss 11.5 Pts
An opposition of Singh on FP but we support him here purely because both players' form in this event suggest that Mickelson is the wrong favourite. Mickelson has finishes of 66/59/3/60 in his last 4 Open's which shows Singh as the player who posts better results on this side of the pond.

Sell Michael Campbell over Jose Maria Olazabal 72H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 1 Pt. M/U 3, Loss 3 Pts
Getting with the Spaniard in this match-up as I feel the price is heavily based on the US Open win in 05' of Campbell. Cambo has missed three of his last four cuts and has had a generally poor season with only two top 10's in full field events. Olly has 5 including two in a couple of the biggest events of the year so far at Augusta and Sawgrass. He has also only missed three cuts all year and is on a run of 6 cuts made.

Buy 3rd Hole Disaster Index at 155 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts *** Closed at 164 = 4.5 Pt Profit *** M/U 151
Originally the first hole, the 3rd is a par 4 429yd dogleg where if any shot goes right is out of bounds and this "trap" runs all the way to greenside. To enable a good score, players will have to hit the fairly small width fairway and then run the risk again of OOB with their approach. Some players may treat the hole as a one putt par hole in which they keep the ball in play and erase the risk by playing up short and chipping with their third shot. Others of course will go for it. Even on approach with the mental note of the OOB to the right a lot of players may unintentionally let it go to the left which involves chipping out of fairly thick rough. At the moment with the weather fine this price is fair value, but if the weather was to turn on any day, especially if wind got up, this trade could return a fair profit. 

Round One Trades

Sell Tiger Woods over Shingo Katayama 18H MB at 13 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 31, Loss 3.6 Pts
Woods is a notoriously slow starter in majors and this opinion has been proved to an extent with the record between the two men in head to head's. Woods has won all 13 matches between them since the start of the 2003 season but in that time has only won 8 of the 13 R1 matches. In fact the M/U average of those matches is 9.9 and with Woods only having played 6 competitive rounds since Augusta and the "Japanese Cowboy" having made his last two cuts in this event, 13 is a fair trade.

Sell Stephen Ames over Keiichiro Fukabori 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -19, Profit 5.2 Pts
30th at Troon in 04' is the Japanese player's best return of two visits to the Open Championship, but Ames' record is pretty poor recently having missed his last two cuts, with his only Top 20 coming 9 years ago. Ames leads Fukabori 4-2 in matches played over the last 3 years so 7 seems a little high when taking all these factors into account. 

Sell Phil Mickelson over Darren Clarke 18H MB at 2.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.2 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.53 Pts
Clarke leads Mickelson 4-1-1 in R1 scoring and 3-2-1 in events on this tour over three years and shouldn't arguably be as big as underdog as the price implies. With fair recent form, albeit coming up short at Loch Lomond, Clarke showed he is best supported in early rounds.

Sell Robert Allenby over Todd Hamilton 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U 19, Loss 2.2 Pts
Sell Stephen Dodd over Todd Hamilton 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.6 Pts
Double play to get with the Open champion of 04' for purely price reasons. Hamilton has done little this season but he proved he can play these intricate type of courses in 2004 and shouldn't be as high as 5 against Dodd who has only played one Open and missed the cut, and Allenby who hasn't finished in the Top 35 in 6 attempts this century.

Sell Colin Montgomerie over John Daly 18H MB at 8 with IG Sport for 0.2 Pts M/U -13, Profit 4.2 Pts
Two players who really have had extremely different memories of the Open with Daly winning one, and in R1 head to heads on this tour Daly posts a fair return of 3 wins and 4 ties from 13 starts. Their average MU in that time is 5.7. 8 is just too high over 18 holes where the pressure is very much on the favourite given his near miss in the last major.

Sell Padraig Harrington over Nick O' Hern 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -25, Profit 5.6 Pts
Head to heads sees Harrington lead 3-2 in events but he has won none of their 6 R1 matches in events they have both played in Europe in the last 18 months. A fair price in this match would be 1-4 so to get a 3pt start on O'Hern has to be taken.

Sell Simon Dyson over Mark O' Meara 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.2 Pts M/U -19, Profit 5.4 Pts
O' Meara has played well generally in Britain with two Top 30s in the Open this century and although Dyson is the obvious favourite he has only made the weekend in one of the four Open's he has qualified for, finishing 34th at St Andrews last year. The price should be around 5-8 in my opinion.

Sell Retief Goosen over Tom Watson 18H MB at 10 with IG Sport for 0.2 Pts M/U 16, Loss 1.2 Pts
Watson is the perfect example of a player who can play links golf. His record in the Senior Open over the last 4 years is 14/1/22/1 with his record on the main tour Open 18/41 in his last two starts. Goosen has a wonderful Open record with 5 consecutive top 15's but his 2006 record is a little similar to Els and Singh in that he isn't playing to the level that we are used to. A fairer price may be 7-10 or 8-11 so you should expect to lose this match-up but h2h's show a 2-1-1 R1 record over the last four Open's.