FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +3.75pts

Stenson 8th
Jimenez 2nd
Gonzalez mc

MAJ looked good for at least a playoff spot until his game collapsed in the last hole and a half. He finished five-five to close one behind Casey.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Henrik Stenson to win 12/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Stenson is hoping for a similar Middle East leg of the European Tour to last year when he finished 2nd, 1st and 7th. Last year's 2nd place finish in this event also included setting the new course record at 10-under-par 62. So, regardless of the low price, he is worth backing as one of Europe's best players and this is a course/region in which his talents should come to the fore once again.

Miguel Angel Jimenez to win 50/1 e.w. @ William Hill, BetFred and BetDirect
Jimenez is another with a very good record in the region: since 2005, his three finishes in the United Arab Emirates have been 2nd, 5th and 4th. There was a clear dropping off of his form last season after he had raised the possibility of getting back into the Ryder Cup team, but he showed a return to form with a 6th place finish in his last start in 2006, the Hong Kong Open. Now back in warmer climes and in a country in which he has played particularly well, he certainly earn a top-5 finish again.

Ricardo Gonzalez to win 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365, William Hill, BetFred, Tote and Boyle Sports
Hardly any of the Tour's leading players competed in the Joburg Open last week and that may translate into some Tour rustiness this week. That is not the case with Gonzalez who closed with a final round of 65 to finish 17th and he also has the advantage of playing regularly in his home country during the off-season rather than following the European Tour around Asia, Australia and South Africa. He played three times on the Tour de Las Americas and finished in the top-5 every time. So, together with a top-5 finish on this course last year, there should be plenty of value in this price.