0-3; -3.00pts

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 10/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and William Hill  24th
Els was avoided last year as the distractions of being consultant to the course changes were clearly going to have an impact on his performance. One year from those course changes and he should be almost able to compete this week as if it were a normal event. That can only aid his chances and given his six victories around this course in the HSBC World Matchplay event and his four top-4 finishes here in his last eight visits, he really should go well this week. And while he has been off the pace in his last two PGA Tour events, it is worth recalling just how well he competes in European Tour events: his last seven finishes on this Tour have been 5th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 5th and 3rd. He really should earn a place finish at least.

Richard Green to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Expekt  8th
A place finish is the height of our aspirations with Green. He has managed two 4th place finishes in four European Tour starts this year, but given his performance when leading the Qatar Masters in January it is easy to see why it is a deacde since his European Tour victory in the Dubai Desert Classic. But last week's 4th place finish in the Irish Open was his first event since his annual early season layoff and such a strong performance when so Tour rusty harbours well for this week. He did, after all, finish 5th here in 2000 and has top-20 finishes in two of the last three years, so if the weather is fine, he may secure another top-5 finish.

Andres Romero to win 80/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Bet365  12th
This is a tough event to win on your course debut, but he had been making his course debuts this year at Doha, the Centro Nacional de Golf and Adare Manor, and managed to finish 7th, 6th and 4th respectively. He has shown that his purple patch in July last year was no fluke and is certainly capable of maintaining the success that Argentineans have had in this event.