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Summary: Bets 6, Wins 3, Losses 3. Profit 15.57 Pts Bet 1 - Buy Peter O'Malley FP at 46 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts. M/U 67, Profit 12.6 Pts Three visits to this course has seen POM miss the cut twice and I would have expected him to be nearer 50. His price is lower than this because he finished Top 20 last week and that follows on from good performances in Australia just before Christmas. However, 2006 European form shows from 17 starts that he only beat 46 8 times. His average is similar to his price this week but we have a top class field here this week which is arguably better than every event he played last year on this tour. Bet 2 - Buy Colin Montgomerie at 9 on the Dubai Super 12 Handicap with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts.
M/U 30, Profit 12.6 Pts This is a new market offered this week by Sporting Index where each player gets their handicap deducted from their final total and of course the winner, receiving 50 pts, will be the player with the lowest nett total. Woods is understandably off of scratch and the best eleven other players in the event are given various stroke amounts of a start. Montgomerie not only gets the most, 11, but also is the equal lowest buy price. This seems wrong as Monty has great form round this track with five Top 20's in eight starts. Bet 3 - Buy David Lynn FP at 42 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts. M/U 38.5, Loss 2.1 Pts A 3rd and 19th in five years suggests Lynn has some good form here but his other 3 starts ended in a cut miss and the 19th last year was courtesy of a fast finishing 67 that took him up 20 places from 39th place on the Saturday night. His average over 5 years is a fair bit higher than the 42 buy price and the field quality keeps improving. Other firms go 42-45 and that is nearer his true worth I believe. Bet 4 - Sell Tiger Woods over Lee Westwood 72H MB at 10.45 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts. M/U 9, Profit 0.87 Pts A successful bet for us last week opposing Woods with Sabbatini even although Sabbatini missed the cut. This week, it seems that the gap between these two players' prices shouldn't be as high as the 10.45 you can sell at with Sporting. In 5 years Westwood has averaged a four round total of 278 which is only 7 higher than Woods' average in three starts of 271. Woods is coming off of a win in California, his 7th on the trot in America, but that seems to have been factored into this price just a little too high. Bet 5 - Buy Gary Orr over Maarten Lafeber 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U -25, Loss 7.95 Pts A head to head record of 11-7 in events and 27-19-5 in rounds for Orr over Lafeber and a fair course record means that Orr should possibly be clear favourite. He is 1-4 at IG Index and this seems a better estimation of his chance. Bet 6 - Sell Alviro Quiros over Peter Hanson 18H MB at -1.5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts. M/U 0, Loss 0.45 Pts In 8 rounds in the Middle East over the last two weeks, Hanson has only lost to Quiros on one occasion and averages a 8pt MU on those rounds. Once again, other firms have Hanson clear favourite which seems correct. |
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