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Summary: 3 Bets, 2 Wins, 1 Loss. Profit 14.79 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Martin Kaymer 72H MB at 1.65 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U -9, Profit 6.39 Pts Stanley puts up a good case for Kaymer on the outrights and he is a touch of value here getting 1.65 strokes start over the favourite. 15th and 3rd in two Iberian starts over the last few weeks is good form and a continuation will see him contend in what is a fairly weak field once you go past the Top 12 or so in the betting. Jimenez in 2007 has some good finishes on the Gulf swing and last week finished 10th in China. For all that, though, 1.65 strokes is too high in my opinion and is one of the few value bets currently on offer on the matches and FP's. Bet 2 - Sell Rafael Echenique over Steve Webster 18H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -37, Profit 11.7 Pts A contestable price here on this match where H2H's show a 2-0-1 lead for Webster. Both players have no form in Europe this year although Echenique has excellent form in China and Argentina. If you totally strip this down to playing golf in the rough vicinity of where they are this week, this match-up should be a "take your pick" affair. In the two events in this region, both players missed both cuts but Echenique missed by a bigger margin in Portugal and it was a tie in Madeira. In their other match-up Webster finished 46th in Singapore whilst Echenique missed out on the weekend. Bet 3 - Sell Alvaro Quiros over Iain Woosnam 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 3.3 Pts Recent results for Quiros are poor with finishes of cut/50/34/50/cut/cut/73 since that career changing win in South Africa in December. He is, of course, a better player than Woosnam at this stage in both their careers. Therefore, the past ability of Woosnam can't come into the reckoning when trying to measure them up for a bet now, but even so, 5 seems a large handicap for Quiros to overcome. Woosie this year has missed the weekend in all 3 starts and pulled out of The Masters on the eve of the event so I can understand why the price is high. However, if we take it that Woosie is fit to play then his actual stats do not show the difference in 2007 ability that the price implies. |
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