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Summary: 2 bets, 1 win, 1 loss. Profit 3 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Francesco Molinari over Simon Wakefield 18H MB at 6 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 31, Loss 7.5 Pts Head to heads between this pair show a healthy 14-6 lead for Molinari but in these events he has only won 9 of the 20 available R1 matches which equates to an average M/U in that time of 2.05. Wakefield's course record reads 5, cut, 50, 40 against Molinari's 26th and 21st in two starts, so course and current form is with the favourite but 6 is a big handicap start to have. Bet 2 - Sell Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano over Paul McGinley 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -34, Profit 10.5 Pts We had no success opposing the Spaniard last week and it may seem a bit dangerous to oppose him this week with someone who is in the middle of a poor season but there seems a bit of value at the price. H2H's show McGinley leads 11-4 in events but losing on R1 only matches so we have that against us. Both players missed the cut last year but Castano noticably done so by shooting 82 in R1 and although his R2 score was better it was still, at 74, worse than 3 of McGinley's 4 rounds. McGinley has played this course 6 times since his last missed cut with two Top 20's in that time whilst Castano has yet to break 70 in 6 rounds played here and with all this info the price could arguably be 1.5 your choice. |
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