0-5; -5.00pts

Further outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Nick Dougherty to lead after the 1st round 28/1 e.w. @ BetFred  14th
Not a player that I would normally back in the outright markets, but he is better suited to a 1st round leader one. He has, after all, ended his last two starting rounds in 5th and 1st place. No course form, but with a morning tee-time and rain forecast for the afternoon, he could set the pace early once again.

Mark Foster to lead after the 1st round 66/1 e.w. @ Bet365  96th
Foster does have course form with the cut made in both his previous attempts and, like Dougherty, he comes into the event in good form, having finished 11th in Portugal and 4th last week in Spain. And finally, like Dougherty, he skipped the Asian event last month and so should be fresher than some players on view this week. Had been tempted by Bourdy, but these odds look more attractive than the 50/1 on offer for the Frenchman.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Raphael Jacquelin to win 22/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]  7th
Quite probably the hottest player on the Tour at the moment. He was impressive in finishing 2nd in the Estoril Open de Portugal a month ago, but then came his performances in Asia. In the China Open he led after the first two rounds before finishing 6th and in the Asian Open he was a wire-to-wire winner. He rested last week, so he should certainly improve on his 16th place finish here last year.

Martin Kaymer to win 33/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]  14th
Sticking with Kaymer for another week at the same odds and same place terms. He did little wrong other than record a couple of late bogeys in the 2nd round when he had reached a top-5 place and struggled on the greens on Sunday, but he still finished 14th and that is his third consecutive top-15 finish on this Tour. And there is no doubting his potential, so I'll back him at these odds in these weaker European events.

Jyoti Randhawa to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler  47th
Difficult not to be impressed with Randhawa's performance last week. After running up an eight on the 16th hole and shoot 75 in the first round to be in 109th position, he then shot 65, 66, 67 to finish 2nd. When he dropped a shot at the 15th hole on Sunday, it was his first bogey for 47 holes; in the intervening period he had recorded 26 pars and 20 birdies. When the pressure was most intense in the final round, he hit 17 out of 18 greens. He has not played on this course or in Italy previously, but that was also the case last week and given that his previous Tour event outside Asia had been the Dubai Desert Classic when he finished 7th, he should be able to beat this field.