FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Derksen 25th
Wilson 25th
Molinari 10th

It looked good for some place money for quite some time with all three players in the top-10 at the early stages of the final round, but a Molinari double-bogey signified the reversal and an end to an interest in this event.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Robert-Jan Derksen to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Tote and Boyle Sports
A common feature among the last five winners is that they finished in the top-25 in their last visit to Santo da Serra before winning the title. And given that this course is set on the site of a mountain with very large altitude changes on many of the holes, it is not surprising that a good acquaintance with the course is a prerequisite to winning here. Derksen, actually, doesn't fit the angle of a top-25 finish at last visit (he finished 45th), but he did win here in 2005 (having been 6th and 14th the previous two years) and no-one has ever successfully defended the Madeira Island Open, so he certainly meets the criteria of course familiarity. And there is the current state of his game: in six starts this year, his worst finish has been 27th. That level of consistency is unmatched in this field and he should be counted upon to challenge for this title for the fourth time in five years.

Oliver Wilson to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes, BlueSq and Tote
Wilson missed the cut on his course debut in 2005, but bounced back with a 21st place finish last year and so is well-placed to improve on that further. Like Derksen, he has yet to miss a cut this year (5 starts) and has a worst-finish of 41st, but it was his performance in the Johnnie Walker Classic that deserves attention. He was denied in the playoff by Anton Haig who performed heroics - as opposed to Wilson buckling - to get there, but he again showed that he has enough potential to be competing in the WGC event this week in future years rather than becoming a regular here. Even a repeat of the form that he showed when finishing in the top-20 the week after that playoff should earn him a strong shot at this title.

Francesco Molinari to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Molinari is already a winner on this Tour, having picked up the Italian Open title last year. And he also meets the course history criteria with finishes of 22nd and 15th in his two previous appearances here. His 22nd place finish in 2005 was his best finish on this Tour to date outside Italy and his 15th place finish was part of a very promising early season form that culminated in his Italian Open win. He hasn't played as well at the start of this year, despite finishing 2006 very strongly, but his 14th place finish last time out in Singapore is enough indication of a return to form. Certainly enough in the sense that course form is much more important this week and he completes a trio of players with a good history at Santo da Serra.