1-2; -1.00pts

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power and BlueSq [6 places]  4th
One win, one playoff loss and one 3rd place finish in the last five years is a very impressive recent history in this event and one that only Tiger (just) betters and he is available at one-quarter these odds. Throw in four years' of experience around Carnoustie in the Dunhill Links Championship on top of his 24th place in 1999 and a very impressive performance last week at the Scottish Open and he really should be Tiger's biggest challenger this week.

Vijay Singh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, BlueSq, BetFred and Boyle Sports [6 places]  27th
Vijay also has four years' experience of Carnoustie in the Dunhill Links Championship and while he can't match Els' average score of 69 (the 2nd best of any player in this field), he still averages under-par over those four rounds and that is quite an achievement around the toughest links on the Open circuit. And similarly to Els, he has an impressive record in the Open Championship, being rarely out of the top-20 and finishing in the top-5 in two of the last four years. He has shown enough form this year to suggest that he can still win another major championship and there is no letting up in his work-rate and resolve: he has been practising at Carnoustie since last week! That shows how much he wants to win this event.

Stuart Appleby to finish in the top-five 17/1 @ Expekt  mc
There was an article by Bill Nichols in last week's Dallas Morning News which looked at which players would be capable of a Van de Velde-like crash at Carnoustie and the conclusion: "Appleby has to be the favorite"! Most notably, he failed to hold on to an overnight two-shot lead in the AT&T National two weeks ago; he failed to hold on to an overnight one-shot lead over Tiger Woods and Justin Rose in the Masters by double-bogeying the first hole; and the week before, he trailed Adam Scott by one shot with one hole to play but followed him in the water. They sound a pretty convincing reasons not to back him each-way, but it should be remembered that he did manage to get himself into a winning position each time, which is something that all but a handful of players managed to do each week. Plus, he has won eight times on the PGA Tour, five times in the last four years, and came very close to adding the Open title in 2002 when he lost in a four-hole playoff to Ernie Els. But still, it's not enough to tempt me to back him each-way just yet, but I'll take these odds on merely a top-5 finish when has shown such good form in the last three months.