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Summary: 8 Bets, 3 Wins, 5 Losses. Profit = 13.05 Pts Bet 1 - Buy Luke Donald FP at 33 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 63.5, Profit 18.3 Pts Donald has never beaten 33rd in 6 starts in this event and a fast finishing Top 5 place on a course at the weekend that is as different in set-up to Carnoustie as Augusta is to a US Open venue is of no major concern. Donald just hasn't been able to play links golf for whatever reason and with the vast majority of the worlds' top 50 players against him plus another 100 of various levels of ability there is good reason to suggest this quote is low by a good 6 or 7 points. Bet 2 - Buy Paul Casey FP at 38 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts. M/U 30, Loss 4.8 Pts Similarly, Casey's record in this event is cut/cut/20/cut/71. Last year's 71 is still memorable as he was in the running and an FP bet placed looked doomed until a 79/77 finish and that is something that Casey seems to bring to majors, a big score in at least one round. Casey has only broken 70 once in 14 rounds in this tournament and although he has Top 10's in his two previous 2007 majors', he just seems to struggle with this one. Bet 3 - Sell Adam Scott over Hideto Tanihara 18H MB at 10 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts.M/U -13, Profit 6.9 Pts Tanihara was 5th last year in Liverpool and has been seriously undervalued by Spreadex in this quote. Scott was 8th in the same event but it was the first time in 7 Open's that he has got inside the Top 30 and his form coming into this week reads cut/cut after a period of good results through April to June. There are just too many question marks over Scott to make him a double digit favourite against a player who has shown a liking for links golf in the past. Bet 4 - Sell Colin Montgomerie over Toshimitsu Izawa 18H MB at 11 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts. M/U 16, Loss 1.5 Pts Another high price getting with a player who has snippets of form in this type of golf. 22nd at Muirfield in 2002 which included rounds of 68 and 67 suggests Izawa may not be the long outsider that Spreadex think. Monty was 2nd to Tiger in 05' but he missed last years' cut and last weeks' cut and is certainly throwing in more cut misses now than he did at the height of his career. Bet 5 - Sell Zach Johnson over Graeme McDowell 18H MB at -0.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts. M/U 22, Loss 6.75 Pts Johnson arrives at this event after two missed cuts and in 3 previous Open visits he has yet to make the cut. Also, reports today of British Airways losing his clubs in transit won't help. Compare this to McDowell who has 3 top 20's in his last 4 starts and was 11th in the Open in 05' and 2nd in the Dunhill Links in 04. McDowell should be clear favourite and it's Johnson's major win at Augusta that is driving this price. Bet 6 - Sell Shaun Micheel over Sandy Lyle 18H MB at 12 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U 19, Loss 2.1 Pts Lyle's record on these shores in the last two years is actually ok, not standout by any means but then a 12pt start on a player who can run up a big score means that you don't have to be better than average. Lyle produced scores of 67 and 69 in a 32nd place in 05' and he missed the cut in 06 scoring 73 both days. In his last 6 rounds in Britain and Ireland his worst round score is 73 suggesting that in these conditions Lyle can put together a score more often than not. Compare this with Micheel who has an Open record of 47/cut/cut and we should really be looking at a price around 7-10. Micheel is the clear favourite, that has to be admitted, but Lyle would win this match more often than the price implies. Bet 7 - Buy Peter Hanson over Brett Wetterich 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U 25, Profit 6.6 Pts A bet not unlike the Mcdowell/Johnson bet in that we have a European in good form on this tour (11/3/13 last 3 weeks) against an incoming American with sparse form in the region. Admittedly, Wetterich played well in the WGC event last year in Watford but in his links appearance last year in Liverpool, he missed the cut shooting 74/72. Hanson was 34th at St Andrews in his only Open start and a 6th in last year's Dunhill, partly played on this course. Bet 8 - Buy Ian Poulter (+9) at 6 on the "Selected Handicap Index" at Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts. M/U 0, Loss 3.6 Pts This is a handicap market based on 24 players in the event with starts of various amounts being given to all bar Tiger. Although the range of average results for all 24 covers about 5 or 6 strokes at most, therefore making it a bit of a lottery, i still feel there is a touch of value in getting with Poulter. Certainly, although i have stated that the bet is a lottery to an extent, I still feel there is better value in this price than getting with Poulter in outright fixed odds markets at the prices offered. There are question marks over a lot of the 24 in this event and one thing Poulter has done over the last couple of years is show an ability to regularly contend in big events, even if he rarely wins, but here he doesn't need to. A top 10 showing here will possibly be enough to get in the Top 4 (and a profit) in this market and anything higher will see him seriously contend for the 50 points on offer for 1st place. A missed cut last year stopped a run of results in this event that was improving year on year as his record from 2000 onwards was 64/dnp/50/46/25/11. Current form shows two Top 10's in France and Scotland and a repeat will give us a great chance of a good return. |
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