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Bets 8. Wins 4, Losses 3, Ties 1. Profit 3.18
Pts.
R1 Bet 1 - Sell Paul Casey over Sergio Garcia 72H MB at 0.5 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts. M/U -8, Profit 5.1 Pts Head to heads on this tour in 2006 sees a 6-2 lead for Garcia with Casey clawing one back with his win last week in Abu Dhabi. Casey in this region has results of 12/45/16/1 with Garcia offering 3/14 in the same time span. I see no particular reason for Garcia getting a start here of half a point so there is a little value in taking on last weeks winner.
Bet 2 - Sell Robert Karlsson over Chris Di'Marco 72H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts.
M/U -3, Profit 1.8 Pts DiMarco has now played two events in the Gulf region, winning in Abu Dhabi last year in some style and posting a 4th place finish in his defence last week. It's his first visit to Qatar of course and he is considered by Spreadex to be the outsider against Karlsson who he beat Sunday by 5 strokes. Karlsson has finished 25th, 5th and 15th the last three years here and could arguably be expected to improve on that given his performances towards the end of 06' and his Ryder Cup participation but i still feel Di'Marco is value at the price. Bet 3 - Buy Peter Hanson FP at 42 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts.M/U 40, Loss 1.2 Pts A 2nd place last week for Hanson was a bit of a surprise after results in this region of cut/cut/52/50/63/60/61/cut in 8 starts here over the last 5 years. That averages out, even including last week's 2nd, at around 50. In the last few years when Hanson has achieved a Top 5 he has followed up in his next start with finishes of cut/wd/28/63/cut/55/34 which shows he has no previous record of going into "runs". His average FP in 2006 is also around the 50 mark so he seems well worth opposing at 42 when the only reason for the low price is his result last week. Bet 4 - Buy Robert-Jan Derksen FP at 47 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts. M/U 30, Loss 10.2 Pts Another player with suspect form in this region, especially in Qatar where 8th in 2004 is the best of 7 starts where 2nd best is 49th. Derksen came to prominence holding off Els to win in Dubai in 03' but 47th and 2 missed cuts in his three other starts suggests it was a one off. An excellent 9th last week, Derksen now has 5 Top 30's since the start of 06' but also has 10 missed cuts in 23 starts. Bet 5 - Buy Stephen Dodd over Scott Strange 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U -16, Loss 5.25 Pts
Strange has won the 6 events they both played together in in 2006 but most of these events were in Asia where Strange usually play. Neither has particularly good form in Qatar but I am prepared to side with Dodd who showed a return to form last week finishing 14th against a player who hasn't played since before Christmas. Bet 6 - Sell Marc Warren over Paul Broadhurst 18H MB at -1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U -13, Profit 3.45 Pts
Head to head's in 06' sees Broady lead 11-8 in events but he prevailed in 13 of the R1 matches. Also, course form points to the Englishman as well, with finishes of 14th in 03' and 2nd last year the best of 5 consecutive starts where he averages 37th. This is Warren's debut so I would pitch Broadhurst clear favourite for this one. R2 Bet 7 - Buy Retief Goosen over Paul Casey 72H MB at 8.2 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts. M/U 24, Profit 9.48 Pts This price does not seem to make any allowance for Casey missing the cut. At the moment Casey sits tied 56th with 19 other players and with winds picking up in Qatar as the day goes on it is advantageous to get a morning tee time. R1 results show an average of 0.5 strokes less were shot by morning players and roughly the same can be expected tomorrow. Before the event started I had Goosen in to shoot approx 0.3 strokes per round less than Casey. When you add all those numbers up you get to an average end expectancy of 8.4 and that is without making any allowance on the chance that the end MU could double if Casey misses the cut tomorrow afternoon.
R3
Bet 8 - Buy Retief Goosen over Sergio
Garcia 72H MB at 8 with IG Sport
for 0.6 Pts. M/U 8 A fair price to support Goosen who will want to kick on and obtain his first win of the year. We are basically buying Goosen spread free as he currently leads Garcia by 8. Their stats so far show an average of 16 holes of 18 in regulation and 29 putts, for Goosen, which is a lot better than Garcia's 13.5 GIR average and 31.5 putt average. |
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