1-2; -1.25pts

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 10/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power and Boyle Sports [6 places]  3rd
Away from his troublesome relationship with Tim Finchem on the PGA Tour and able to spend more time with his family when on the European Tour, Els is a much more likely winner on this side of the Atlantic. He has won this event twice (2000 and 2003) with two further top-3 finishes and, while he has not been in the best of form over the past couple of months, there were encouraging signs in his last outing, the BMW International Open when finishing 7th. That was the week after the U.S. Open, so with two weeks at home with his family, I'm anticipating a very strong couple of weeks from the Big Easy.

Ian Poulter to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]  8th
Poulter shares the same record as Els of shooting 70 or better in every round in each of the last four years at Loch Lomond and they have netted him top-15 finishes every time, including two top-5 finishes. Like Els, he has had some high finishes on the PGA Tour this year (e.g. 3rd in the Byron Nelson Championship) and, like Els, he should play better now that he has a string of events together in Europe rather than fitting in European Tour events in the middle of a run of events in the United States. He finished in the top-10 last time out in France and he should repeat that this week.

Thomas Bjorn to win 40/1 e.w. available generally  49th
Would have considered former winner, Thomas Levet, for this event, but three straight weeks of Tour golf plus two days of British Open qualifying on Monday and Tuesday is hardly ideal preparation for this event. Instead, I'll back another former winner, Thomas Bjorn, who has also finished 2nd here and held the lead with one round to play last year before losing out to Johan Edfors' final round 63. Add in a 3rd place finish last time out in France and, while he may not be the most consistent of players, he looks sure to be ideally prepared, including mentally, to be a serious contender once again around Loch Lomond.