1-2; -0.25pts

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Bradley Dredge to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places; 20/1 with 5 places available generally]  2nd
On a par-69 course in which the pinnacle of a "59" was almost reached last year, being in very good form and a history of being able to shoot very low scores is essential this week. Dredge is one of those players who have come within a whisker of that mark on the European Tour - he shot 60 in the third round of the Madeira Island Open in 2003. And he is in very good form having taken Padraig Harrington to a playoff in the Irish Open two weeks ago. After losing on that occasion, it is easy to overlook his missed cut last week and it should even make him a better prospect for this event. He finished 7th on this course last year - his third top-10 finish in the last five years - after Pod become the first home winner of the Irish Open for 25 years, there should be renewed optimism that a home player can finally win this event.

Raphael Jacquelin to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]  25th
There can be no doubts over Jacquelin's form. Before the BMW PGA Championship last week, he had finished 2nd, 6th, 1st, 7th and 7th in his previous five starts. And while he has not shot a 60 on Tour like Dredge, he did shoot 62 last year in the Malaysian Open and even shot consecutive opening round 62s in 2003 (Nordic Open and BMW International Open). A 17th place finish in his only previous visit (2005) is supportive when it is considered that he was in relatively poor form at the time, so give his recent finishes, he should be a very strong candidate this week.

Martin Kaymer to win 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, BlueSq and BetFred  14th
I suppose I can be accused of blindly backing Anthony Kim and Martin Kaymer ad nauseum, but I am convinced that both will win on Tour this year. Yet again, as a Tour rookie, he has no course experience, but it didn't stop recording four consecutive top-15 finishes once the Tour returned to Europe in March and finishes of 35th and 30th in the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship are commendable performances against such strong fields and on such testing courses. Neither is the case this week and if there was any evidence needed that he can go low, it can be found in his 59 in the second round of the Habsburg Classic less than 12 months ago. Someone will go very close to matching that score this week and it will certainly helps with the pressure if you've achieved that mark once before.