4-5; -1.83pts

Round 1 plays (1pt)

Charl Schwartzel to beat Mads Vibe-Hastrup -154 @ Unibet  WON by 3
Far shorter odds than I like for a 1st round match, but I can't find any reason to expect Vibe-Hastrup to play well this week - he's far too erratic even on courses he has played previously. Schwartzel has looked good in the last 2 events in South Africa and may match his top-10 finish last year

Oliver Wilson to beat Markus Brier -133 @ Unibet  TIED
Wilson was a runner-up in the South African Open just before Christmas and has finished ahead of Brier by seven and four shots on this course in the last two years

Padraig Harrington to beat Adam Scott -115 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 4
A top-5 finish on this course vs. no previous course experience makes Harrington the favoured player here. The bonus is that Scott is reportedly 'ring-rusty' and 'not picked up a club for three weeks'

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Gregory Havret -123 @ Unibet  WON by 1
Jacquelin's the better player and it should be difficult for Havret to pick up his game again tomorrow after finishing 6-6 today

Graeme Storm to beat Richard Finch -133 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 6
Finch has missed the cut both times on this course and if he putts as badly tomorrow as he did today, he may well make it a hat-trick

Paul Lawrie to beat Marc Warren -135 @ Unibet  WON by 1
Warren is runs the risk of making it three missed cuts in three visits and being in 99th place, it looks very likely. A best finish of 34th since winning the Johnnie Walker Championship also suggests he will not turn his game around tomorrow

Shiv Kapur to beat David Howell -103 @ Five Dimes TIED
Howell is in an even bigger rut with his game (he has two sevens on his card today). Kapur has finishes of 45th and 20th in the last two years and looks far more likely to make the cut

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Alexander Noren to beat Thomas Levet -125 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
Noren has been preparing for the new season by practising with Martin Kaymer in Arizona for the last month and it has clearly benefitted them this week. I expect him to move up the leaderboard tomorrow, which Levet probably won't ... their respective rankings for 3rd round scoring average over the last 12 months is 11th and 132nd (of 142)

Soren Hansen to beat Thomas Levet -110 @ Ladbrokes  LOST by 6
Big difference in quality at the moment between these two players and in terms of 3rd round scoring average, Hansen ranks 4th

Round 4 plays (1pt)

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Rory McIlroy +115 @ The Greek  LOST by 4
McIlroy remains overvalued in the odds and this is reflected in this matchup. He is certainly a great prospect, but he is still very young and yet to show that he can churn out low scores when out of a tournament

Paul Sheehan to beat Damien McGrane -110 @ Five Dimes  WON by 5
Opposing McGrane who ranks 77th in 4th round scoring average over the past year with a player who has finished 2nd, 39th and 11th in the last month, shooting 70 or better in the final round every time