7-2; +2.80pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt):

Philip Archer to beat Darren Clarke -115 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
Big difference in form between these two as shown by Archer's 10-3-0 h2h record against Clarke since last July. Add in Archer's runner-up finish on this course and Clarke making his debut and there should be value in these odds

Alvaro Velasco to beat Anton Haig -115 @ Five Dimes  WON by 4
Siding with the home player who has a good pedigree winning Spanish national amateur titles and at Coastal Carolina University and earned his Tour Card via the Challenge Tour. He should also be much better prepared for this event having finished 5th in the Madeira Island Open last week, whereas Haig was still finishing at the bottom end of the leaderboard on Monday afternoon in the CA Championship

Michael Jonzon to beat Peter Whiteford -115 @ Five Dimes  WON by 4
Looking for Jonzon's form to improve now that the Tour has reached mainland Europe and it typically has done in Spain, as he did last year when finishing 4th on this course. By contrast, Whiteford missed five cuts from eight starts in Spain on the Challenge Tour and he should also suffer from the morning tee-time as the strong winds are predicted to drop during the day; Jonzon tees off in the penultimate group in the afternoon

Round 2 play (3pts):

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet to beat Paul Lawrie -127 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 9
Staking the whole of today's winning on this play though there is a very good chance that it will be void as Lawrie seems unlikely to play tomorrow. Just a few excerpts from his website diary ... Friday last week: "I woke up this morning and couldn't get my socks on!! ... Therefore I've had to withdraw which is very frustrating but all part of tour life."  Tuesday: "My flight to Heathrow this morning was delayed by two hours because of the weather.  When we eventually arrived in London we were held on the plane as one of the baggage handlers was involved in an accident and sadly died.   The delay meant I missed my connection to Malaga but my problems are nothing compared to someone losing their life, it's a real tragedy and I feel for his family.   I will now stay in London overnight and fly to Malaga in the morning."  Yesterday: "I had to withdraw from the pro am because of the flight delays yesterday, so this afternoon Andy and I walked the course ... My back is still stiff but feels ok." I can't see him playing tomorrow after shooting 78 and being in 136th position on the leaderboard, but just in case ...

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Pablo Martin to beat Rory McIlroy -120 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 3
This is a short course under 7000 yards requiring ball control and that means problems if you can't hit the fairway off the tee. McIlroy has hit just 9 in two rounds and together with a cold putter - he 3-putted three times today - he has a lot of work to do on the pactice ground if he is to break par tomorrow

David Frost to beat Matthew Millar -123 @ Five Dimes  WON by 4
Never mind lead an event, the only time that Millar has been in the top-5 after two rounds was in the BMW PGA Championship last year - he shot 79-80 over the weekend. Frost has still shown that he can play on this Tour, finishing 21st and 14th in his last two events

Marcel Siem to beat Robert Dinwiddie -120 @ Five Dimes  WON by 4
Siem may not exactly be the most reliable of players, but he played much safer from the tee today and if he can keep his composure tomorrow he should beat the rookie, Dinwiddie, who may find the pressure a little intense tomorrow after today's flying round under the rader propelled him into 3rd place

Round 4 plays (1pt):

Joost Luiten to beat Damien McGrane -135 @ Unibet  WON by 2
Huge gap in 4th round scoring average between these two: over the last 12 months, Luiten averages 68.4; McGrane averages 72.5 - that a big enough difference in final round performance to warrant such a short price

Martin Kaymer to beat Peter Hanson -122 @ Five Dimes  WON by 3
Being down the leaderboard may be expected after these two were both involved in last week's weather-affected CA Championship in Miami, but how they respond to a lack of winning opportunities in the final round differs greatly. In the last 20 occasions that Hanson has been 35th or lower on the leaderboard after 54 holes (they are currently 45th), Hanson has never shot lower than 71 and averages 73.2; Kaymer's over-par was last week at Doral and he averages 69.8