4-3; +0.80pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt)

Henrik Stenson to beat Lee Westwood -120 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 2
Course history decides this play ... Stenson's last 3 visits have yielded finishes of 2nd, 1st and 7th; Westwood's 21st, mc and 34th. Westwood has shot a lower round than Stenson just once in the last two years at Doha

Steve Webster to beat Bradley Dredge +100 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
Similar story here: Webster has finished ahead of Dredge in each of the last three years here, with Dredge shooting the lower round in just two of twelve in that period. Add in the fact that Webster has finished ahead of Dredge in each of their last seven common events and clearly the wrong player is favourite

Round 2 plays (1pt)

David Howell to beat Pelle Edberg +103 @ Five Dimes  WON by 5
Opposing Edberg who is 21st and was 16th-26th after rd1 four times last year and shot 78-73-72-77. It remains to be seen if Howell can maintain his top-10 position, but there should be value in these odds

Peter Hanson to beat Rory McIlroy +112 @ Unibet  WON by 1
A value play here as well. I'd expect Hanson to rebound in rd2 as he does so often after a poor 1st round and as can be seen from his 6-1 2nd round head-to-head record against McIlroy

Round 3 plays (1pt)

Johan Edfors to beat Ross McGowan -120 @ Five Dimes  TIED
Would have expected better odds in this matchup after Edfors' second round, but his credentials when leading from the front are good: twice he has held the lead after 36 holes and twice he has shot under 70 to keep the lead after 54 holes

Thongchai Jaidee to beat Charl Schwartzel -115 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
By contrast Schwartzel's record when in the last group on Saturday is not good. He has been 2nd/3rd after 36 holes seven times in the last five seasons, never breaking 70 in the 3rd round with an average Satruday score of 73.29

Barry Lane to beat Jose-Filipe Lima -110 @ Five Dimes  WON 4
Lima is a player to oppose on Saturdays. In the last 12 months, he has broken 70 just once in twelve 3rd rounds; Lane averages almost 1.5 shots lower over the same period

Round 4 plays (1pt):

Oliver Fisher to beat Graeme McDowell +138 @ VCbet  TIED (loss)
Looks to be value in these odds for a player who ranks 5th in greens in regulation so far this week, compared to McDowell who is 46th

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -110 @ Five Dimes  TIED
Pretty easy to back a player who has a 11-2 head-to-head record in the 4th round against his opponent over the last 12 months