Celtic Manor Wales Open

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7-7; -2.02pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt):

Jeev Milkha Singh to beat Robert Rock -154 @ Unibet  LOST by 1
Mismatch. In eleven common events since the start of 2008, Rock has finished ahead of Singh at the end of the tournament just once and at the end of the 1st round just twice. Even the tournament form is skewed heavily in favour of Singh: he has finished 21st and 10th (last year) in two appearances, while Rock has a best-finish of 41st alongside four missed cuts in five attempts and didn't play last year when they changed course to the Twenty Ten course.

Francesco Molinari to beat Stephen Dodd -105 @ Stan James [tie loses]  LOST by 5
Successive top-5 finishes in the last two weeks and being a 'home' player has seen Dodd installed as 16/1 second-favourite with one firm, but playing in your national Open can lead to more pressure than encouragement. He has played in this event eight times and made the cut just four times, the last time in 2006. He even played in a Challenge Tour event in Wales last year, but shot 79-78 to miss the cut. In terms of the first round, he has broken 70 just once in ten attempts in Wales and that was on the par-69 Roman Road course at the Celtic Manor Resort. There should be better value with Molinari who has been in equally good form, but for much longer and did finish 4th last year when this course was first used.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Chris Wood -110 @ Five Dimes [also available @ SkyBet, Stan James and Bet365]  LOST by 1
In contrast to Dodd, Donaldson has done much better in his national Open than elsewhere: in eight attempts, he has finished in the top-15 four times, including last year. Wood is playing well, but considering that he has never played this course and in their 14 common events, he has shot a lower 1st round score than Donaldson just once, he may struggle to beat Donaldson this week.

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Stephen Dodd +105 @ SkyBet [tie loses]  WON by 2
Opposing Dodd again and this time with Jimenez who won this event in 2005, albeit on the Roman Road course at the Celtic Manor Resort. He cannot compete with Dodd's form over the last couple of weeks but that creates better value and Dodd could easily be a player to oppose this week.

Jamie Donaldson to beat Stephen Dodd +120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1
The culmination of the previous three picks should lead to this play with Paddy Power matching up two home players. Little else to add other than since the start of the 2008 season, Donaldson has a 19-3-2 1st round h2h record against Dodd and in terms of their record at the Celtic Manor Resort, they have both played at the same time on six occasions and Donaldson leads 5-1-0 in both the 1st round and after 72 holes.

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Richard Green to beat Rhys Davies -137 @ Stan James [tie loses]  LOST by 2

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Pablo Larrazabal -125 @ SkyBet [also available @ Stan James, Unibet and Bet365]  WON by 3

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Pablo Larrazabal -163 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 1

Richard Green to beat Pablo Larrazabal -130 @ Five Dimes  WON by 2

Simon Dyson to beat Jose-Filipe Lima -135 @ Five Dimes  WON by 7

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Ross Fisher to beat Jeev Milkha Singh -138 @ Bet365 and William Hill [also available @ Five Dimes, Stan James and Paddy Power]  LOST by 2

Niclas Fasth to beat Marc Cayeux -169 @ Unibet  WON by 6

Paul Waring to beat Oliver Fisher -130 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1

Richard Finch to beat Callum Macaulay -120 @ Five Dimes  WON by 3

Thomas Bjorn to beat Robert Rock -150 @ Paddy Power  TIED