Open de Andalucia

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3-0; +6.50pts  (system plays: 14-10-4) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Richard Bland -110 @ Stan James  TIED
Bland may have been in the better form over the last couple of months, but now that the Tour has reached mainland Europe I'm expecting GFC's form to improve. This is an event that he has jointly promoted with Miguel Angel Jimenez since 2007 and that responsibility has not harmed his performances in this event: he finished 7th in 2007 and 14th last year. Similarly, when in Spain he tends play better as shown by his 11-4 h2h record against Bland in Spanish events and across all events, he has been beaten by Bland just twice in the first round since the start of last season (15 common events). So Bland may have better current form, but it should not be enough to give him the advantage tomorrow.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Orr tb Whitnell -120 (T); Rock tb Martin P -120 (W); Dougherty tb Ilonen -111 (L); Levet tb Aiken -120 (W); Velasco tb Parry -120 (T); McGinley tb Goya -120 (T); Erlandsson tb McEvoy -120 (L); Molinari tb Quiros A -110 (W); Garrido tb Aiken -111 (W); Fernandez-Castano tb Clarke -111 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Joost Luiten -163 @ Paddy Power  WON by 6
A short price but Oosthuizen is by far the better player and finished 4th on his previous visit to this course so, alongside his 2nd place finish last week, a top-10 position at the end of day one was no surprise. He has finished ahead of Luiten in six of their eight common events over the last year and even though he currently trails Luiten by a shot, it is hard to see how the Dutchman can remain in the lead if he continues to play so poorly: he ranked 58th in greens in regulation today.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Siem tb Luiten -105 (L); Finch tb Huldahl -120 (W); Lawrie Pa tb Luiten -120 (W); Quiros A tb Davies -175 (W); Colsaerts tb Brown -120 (L); Garrido tb Lawrie Pe -120 (L); Garrido tb Kjeldsen +125 (L); Parry tb Velasco -110 (W); McGinley tb Gallacher -120 (W); Garrido tb Aiken -125 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Thomas Levet to beat Soren Kjeldsen +125 @ Five Dimes  WON by 6
Expecting Kjeldsen to continue to fall down the leaderboard in round 3. He started the weekend in the top-10 six times last season on the European Tour, averaging 71.50 and managing to remain in the top-10 just half of the time. Worth a punt at these odds that Levet will play better without pressure than Kjeldsen who is hardly famous for playing well under pressure.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Molinari tb Oosthuizen -140 (W); Finch tb Webster -110 (W); Finch tb Derksen -111 (W); Aguilar tb Lima -110 (L); Delamontagne tb Whiteford -120 (L); Kjeldsen tb Oosthuizen +100 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Paul Lawrie -120 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Worth opposing Lawrie when in contention. He started the final round in the top-10 on four occasions last year, shooting 76 on two occasions and each time finishing further behind the leader than at the start of the day. Luiten has been consistent this week, shooting each round under 70, so should be able to profit from Lawrie's final round struggles.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Derksen tb Hutsby -120 (T); Donaldson tb Gallacher -111 (W)]