PGA Championship

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2-1; +1.60pts  (system plays: 7-6-2) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

David Horsey to beat Danny Willett -115 @ Unibet [also available @ Extrabet]  LOST by 11
Horsey is in good form at the moment with a runners-up finish last time out in the Italian Open and can draw on good memories of his debut last year: he led this event after the 1st round and was still in 2nd place after 36 holes. He did falter over the weekend, but combined with his performance two weeks ago, he should be confident of another good performance here. By contrast, Willett has been very consistent this year, but he is making his course debut and, despite the course changes, this is an event in which course experience is very important ... in the last 15 years, only twice has the winner not played in this event at least six times before his victory.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Wall tb Molinari E +100 (W); Ilonen tb Luiten -105 (W); Gonzalez tb Hedblom -105 (W); Harrington tb Poulter +100 (W); Donaldson tb Storm -133 (W); Wall tb Willett -125 (L); Vancik tb Hoey +110 (L); Siem tb Lee D +110 (L); McGinley tb Bjorn +110 (W); Jaidee tb Oosthuizen +115 (L)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Craig Lee to beat Craig Shave -125 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
Both qualified for this event by winning their Regional Orders of Merit last year - Lee, the Tartan Tour and Shave, the Midland Order of Merit. On that basis, they would appear quite equal, but there is a world between them in terms of experience and results and that will be particularly important as they both lie inside the top-20 after the 1st round. While Shave has been playing in regional events and two weeks ago competing in a qualifier for the English PGA Professional Championship, Lee was a full member of the European Tour two years ago, achieving three top-20 finishes that season. Since then, the Stirling professional has won a number of minor Tour events, including two wins from sevens starts last year on the German EPD Tour, a tier below the European Challenge Tour and well above regional events in the Midlands. He has the experience to build on his current top-20 finish and he has done on this Tour only two years ago. Shave should be the one to struggle after such a round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Wall tb Davies -111 (L); Quiros tb Molinari E -105 (T); Manassero tb Davies +130 (T); Wood tb Molinari E -120 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Ross Fisher +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 4
Opposing Fisher even though he grew up playing on this course, but as he has admitted in interview, he has "really, really struggled pretty much all of this year". He did some with with Phil Kenyon earlier this week and it has clearly worked so far, but the real test will come when he is playing under pressure over the weekend. Even when he was in this position three times last year, though, he fell down the leaderboard each time rather than take the lead, averaging 74, so there should be value in opposing Fisher at these odds with the tie void; I can't see Donald being too far from retaining the lead after Saturday's play.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Lafeber tb Otto +125 (L)]

No round 4 plays.