Castello Masters

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1-1; -1.70pts  (system plays: 12-9-4) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Alexander Noren to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano +115 @ Carib [also avialable @ 5Dimes]  TIED
Attractive odds to back a player who has a 13-8-0 tournament h2h record against his opponent over the last 12 months and an even better h2h record of 13-6-2 in the first round over the same period. It is not as though GFC will have an edge in course form as he has finished 29th and 48th in the two years of this event here, whereas Noren finished 3rd in his sole visit to this club. And it is not as though GFC will have a particular 'home advantage': in the last three years, he has played in his native Spain 15 times and finished in the top-10 just twice; over the same period, Noren has played in Spain eight times and finished in the top-10 five times and never missed the cut.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kjeldsen tb Parry -115 (T); Derksen tb Davies +120 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Paul Lawrie to beat Jeppe Huldahl -123 @ Extrabet  TIED
Backing Lawrie to continue his good form even though he holds a share of the first round lead. He has been in this position three times over the past year or so: he then shot 69 in the 2nd round of the 2009 Johnnie Walker Championship to move further away from the field; he shot 68 in the 2nd round of the 2010 Open de Andalucia to lie 4th; and he shot 73 in the 2nd round of the 2010 Italian Open to lie 10th. Even with his 73 in he Italian Open he did not collapse under the pressure of leading an event, which is something that Huldahl has done repeatedly when starting well in a European Tour event. He currently lies in 8th place, but in the four previous occasions he has finished the 1st round in the top-10 over the past year or so, he has shot 75, 76, 71 and 77 in the next round. Not once has he even remained in the top-30 after the second round, so tomorrow really should be no different.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Lawrie Pe tb Gonzalez -150 (W); McGowan tb Gonzalez -150 (W); Derksen tb Horsey -105 (W); Green tb Manassero -120 (L); Gallacher tb Horsey +105 (L); Cevaer tb Strange +100 (L); Green tb Kjeldsen -110 (L); Green tb Noren -120 (L); Jaidee tb Manassero +120 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Alexander Noren to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano +125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib and Bet365]  WON by 2
A repeat of the first round play with even better odds. Fernandez-Castano has looked very good from tee-to-green, but it will be very different tomorrow when he is playing in the final group. Noren has the better record here and in Spain and after the conclusion to today's round - he was five-under-par for the last five holes, including a hole-in-one - he is very much in contention for this title.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Aiken tb Horsey +100 (W); Price tb Hoey +115 (W); Bourdy tb Manassero -115 (L); Gonzalez tb Goya +110 (W); Hedblom tb Gonzalez -155 (T); Manassero tb Lawrie Pe -120 (T); Bourdy tb Boyd -111 (L)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Anders Hansen to beat Alejando Canizares -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]  LOST by 3
Since losing in a playoff for the Open de France (his second playoff loss in less than two months), Canizares has been struggling with his game and particularly over the weekend. He has failed to record a top-25 finish in his eight events since the Open de France , hasn't broken 70 over the weekend in any of his 14 rounds over that spell and averages 75.72 over his seven final round attempts over that period. Little wonder that Hansen has been dominating the head-to-head matchup recently.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Hedblom tb Velasco -110 (W); Luiten tb Garrido -110 (T); Fernandez-Castano tb Noren +120 (W); Manassero tb Parry +100 (W); Nilsson tb Velasco +100 (W); Manassero tb Lawrie Pe -125 (W); Lara tb Garrido +110 (L)]