Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

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3-1; +4.12pts  (system plays: 6-4-1)

Round 1 play (2pts):

Niclas Fasth to beat Sam Hutsby +138 @ Ladbrokes [also available @ William Hill and BetFred]  LOST by 3
Hutsby has certainly been the more consistent of the two, but Fasth has still finished ahead of him in two of their last three events. And then there is the venue: Carnoustie. Hutsby has played in this event just once previously when he opened with a 77 around Carnoustie in the first round and went on to miss the cut. By contrast, Fasth has a great deal of experience around this course and he has performed well here. He finished 35th in the 2005 Open Championship here and in the two occasions that he has previously started at Carnoustie, he has shot 70 (to lie 27th of the 168 players at the end of the day in 2005) and 67 (to lie 6th in 2007).

Round 2 play (2pts):

Andrew Coltart to beat Victor Dubuisson -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Backing Coltart to continue his improved form of late - he finished 11th in the Austrian Open last month and now lies 21st after an opening 69 around St Andrews. For Dubuisson, it is the first time that he has opened with a sub-70 round in a European Tour event and even though he currently lies alongside Coltart, I can't see him remaining there - he has missed the cut in seven of his ten European Tour starts and finished in the top-50 just once.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Hedblom tb Bjorn +138 (L); Lawrie Pa tb Gonzalez -120 (W); Parry tb Kjeldsen -105 (W); Donaldson tb Ferrie -130 (L); Aiken tb Lafeber -105 (W); Donaldson tb Boyd -125 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Edoardo Molinari -125 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 13
The Ryder Cup players have been very impressive this week and it was good to see Molinari get back under the cut line alongside the rest of his team-mates. But there is still a concern that his failure to beat Rickie Fowler when under such pressure on Monday may yet have lingering effects. Not so with Kaymer who was not at his best last week, but looks much more dominant in this format. He has won his last two European Tour events, has finished 15th and 2nd (playoff loss) in his two previous attempts in this event and was 7th around St Andrews at the Open Championship in July. He is currently 3rd and I can't see him having a bad round tomorrow.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Bjorn tb Siem +100 (W); Quiros tb Parry -130 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Martin Laird to beat Stephen Gallacher +106 @ Pinnacle  WON by 4
Good odds to back Laird who is usually very good when in contention, despite his wobble when on the verge of winning The Barclays last month. He has started the final round in the top-10 on ten occasions and his worst finish has been 11th, averaging 69.1 in the final round when starting it in the top-10. Gallacher is a shot further back in 15th place, but he has struggled recently when in contention - he shot 75 and 77 in consecutive weeks in August when in contention with one round to play.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Bjorn tb Levet -110 (T); Gonzalez tb McEvoy +110 (L); Els tb McIlroy +105 (W)]