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18-Hole Match Picks - European Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Open de Espana
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4-0; +14.00pts  (system plays: 15-16-3) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Ignacio Garrido to beat Oliver Fisher -111 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Two of the in-form players in this event - Garrido has finished 14th, 3rd, 20th and 23rd in his last four starts; Fisher has finished 8th, 2nd, 7th and 4th in his last four - but three of Fisher's four starts were in Asia and it is a very different matter when playing in mainland Europe and particularly in Spain where there is a marked difference between these two. Whereas Fisher has a record of three missed cuts in six events in Spain over the last 2 years, Garrido has finished in the top-35 in six of seven starts over the same period. Of a similar nature are their record on this course which was used for this event in 2008 and the Open de Andalucia last year: Fisher played in one of those events and missed the cut; Garrido lost in a playoff for the 2008 Open de Espana and finished 14th in the 2009 Open de Andalucia.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fernandez-Castano tb Aiken -111 (T); Dougherty tb Dodd -111 (L); Gonnet tb Randhawa -105 (W); Bjorn tb Zanotti -105 (L); Lara tb McEvoy -125 (W); Lucquin tb Canete -125 (L); Wall tb Horsey -120 (W); Finch tb Martin -111 (W)]

 

Round 2 play (4pts):

Richard Finch to beat Ricardo Gonzalez +100 @ FiveDimes  WON by 6
Very surprised to see Gonzalez as the first-round leader given that he is usually so erratic off the tee and the rough is no penal this week. He did win the 2004 Open de Sevilla on this course, but he rode his luck off the tee that week and particularly in the last round, and while he did not use his driver all the time today, he still only hit seven fairways. That makes it all the more remarkable that he hit 16 greens in regulation. I really can't see that level of post-drive recovery continuing tomorrow and particularly as the first round leader - he led the Trophee Hassan II after the 1st round only six weeks ago and shot 77 in the second round! Finch played well in the 1st round and lies in 12th place. There's no reason to expect him to struggle tomorrow.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Dougherty tb Hutsby -110 (W); Echenique tb Waring +115 (W); Webster tb Whiteford -135 (L); Ilonen tb Huldahl -175 (L); Noren tb Gonzalez -125 (W); Kjeldsen tb Molinari E -125 (L); McGrane tb Foster -120 (L); Fasth tb Fisher -118 (W); Drummond tb Henningsson -120 (L); Noren tb Fisher -125 (W)]

 

Round 3 play (2pts):

Joost Luiten to beat Chris Wood -120 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Backing Luiten as a good 'momentum' player. Not only is he in good form - 14th and 6th in his last two starts - but this will be the 13th time that he has started the weekend in the top-15 in a Tour event ... in every single occasion so far he has finished the tournament inside the top-20. Wood is coming off three consecutive missed cuts and was similarly in the top-15 after 36 holes of this event last year ... he shot 79 in the third round.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Dodd tb Wood +105 (W); Colsaerts tb Foster +105 (L); Echenique tb Campillo -135 (W); Echenique tb Jacquelin +120 (L); Echenique tb Canete -111 (W); Howell tb Vancsik +105 (L); Wall tb Wood +105 (W); Wall tb Lowry -120 (T); Zanotti tb Del Moral -120 (L)]

 

Round 4 play (4pts):

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Edoardo Molinari -120 @ FiveDimes  WON by 1
Both players are outside the top-30 and out of contention for this event, so it is now a matter of motivation in the final round. That will surely be more with local player Jimenez than Molinari whose attentions will now be diverted more to winning his home Open next week, particularly as he will be the local player next week having been born in and still lives in Turin. Even without that dual 'local player' angle, Molinari is not a player to side with when out of contention: he has started the final round outside the top-30 on 20 occasions on the European Tour and only twice has he avoided finishing further behind the leader than at the start of the day.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Zanotti tb Del Moral -111 (T); Lowry tb McGrane +105 (W); Luiten tb Clarke +100 (L); Lowry tb Jacquelin +100 (L); Dodd tb Bourdy -105 (L); Luiten tb Donaldson -105 (L); Lowry tb Wall -105 (W)]