Open de France

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3-1; +3.40pts  (system plays: 12-9-5)

Round 1 play (4pts):

Kenneth Ferrie to beat Rafael Cabrera-Bello -105 @ FiveDimes  WON by 1
Opposing Cabrera-Bello who is due a poor round after his exploits in the last two weeks. He couldn't get on a flight to the U.S. Open because there was a problem with his passport so he had to go to Madrid and apply for another one; he then arrived in California, but his clubs didn't (they were in Philadelphia); playing in his first Major, he was leading the U.S. Open when he came off the course in the first round; despite a third round 81, he finished 47th which meant he couldn't get back in time for the Open qualifier the next day; while he started slowly the following Thursday, he managed to finish 3rd in the BMW International Open. I can't see anything other than a poor opening round from an exhausted Cabrera-Bello, particularly as his four previous rounds here have been 71, 80, 75 and 78. Ferrie should make a very strong opponent as he also finished 3rd last week (but was fresh from not playing the previous week) and has finished 3rd and 6th here.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Hansen S tb Molinari E -110 (W); Storm tb Gallacher -111 (W); Kjeldsen tb Davies -110 (T); Jimenez tb Molinari E +115 (L); Karlsson tb Davies -120 (L); Larrazabal tb Molinari E -120 (W); Ogilvy tb Davies +110 (L); Webster tb Wilson +110 (L); Larrazabal tb Horsey -111 (W); Slocum tb Wood -111 (L)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

James Kamte to beat Tommy Fleetwood -125 @ FiveDimes  LOST by 2
Opposing Fleetwood after the exhausting fortnight that he has just experienced: two weeks ago, he was the leading medallist in the Amateur Championship, but lost his match in the last 16 round; he then travelled to Chantilly where he secured his place in this event in a 36-hole qualifer; he then played in the Brabazon Trophy that week where he was the first round leader, but fell back thereafter. Fatigue was acknowledged to be a factor last week and it could easily be the case tomorrow as he seeks to follow up his opening 71. Either way, he will have to play at least as well to again match Kamte who would have finished the day in the top-20 but for a seven at the 14th hole. He has been playing well in South Africa in the last couple of months and was the first round leader here in 2007 so should certainly be able to build on his opening 71.

[unofficial rd system plays: Zanotti tb Derksen +170 (L); Fisher tb Molinari E -113 (L); Donald tb Kaymer +120 (L); Willett tb Molinari E +100 (W); Ogilvy tb Davies +100 (W); Cabrera A tb Havret -105 (W); Jimenez tb Molinari E +120 (T); Noh tb Colsaerts -110 (W); Dredge tb Bourdy +140 (T); Jaidee tb Larrazabal -118 (W)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Soren Kjeldsen +100 @ FiveDimes  WON by 1
Backing Ogilvy to continue the momentum that he showed today. Struggling to make the cut, he birdied three of the last five holes to make it on the mark. Kjeldsen made the weekend with an extra shot to spare, but he has been struggling with his game this week, ranking 121st in greens in regulation, so even though he does have a good record on this course, he should once again struggle to break par on Saturday.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Martin Kaymer +120 @ Stan James [also available @ FiveDimes, Pinnacle and Paddy Power]  WON by 1
Opposing Kaymer even though he does have a good record when leading with one round to play: he has held the lead six times on the European Tour after 54 holes and won three times. However, two of those wins came following six shot leads with 18 holes to play, though he did need a playoff to win the 2008 BMW International Open from that position. But these are two players moving in opposite directions this week: every round has been higher than the last for Kaymer, while every round has been lower than the last for Donald. So, with Donald having finished 2nd, 1st and 3rd in his last three European Tour events and now only two shots behind Kaymer, I'd expect him to put some pressure on the leader tomorrow.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Storm tb Ferrie +100 (W); Willett tb Storm -119 (W); Lawrie Pe tb Maybin +105 (L); McIlroy tb Schwartzel -109 (W); Lynn tb Finch -118 (T); Storm tb Bourdy -105 (T]