Italian Open

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2-1; +3.00pts  (system plays: 7-10-2) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Marcus Fraser to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -120 @ Five Dimes  WON by 3
After regaining his Tour Card, Colsaerts had a sluggish start to his season with three missed cuts in his first five events, but he has suddenly found his form over the last three weeks, finishing 8th, 33rd and 6th. But that three week run of form has seen him play in China, South Korea and Spain ... fatigue will surely be a favtor this week. By contrast, Fraser's form has been just as impressive - he won the Ballantine's Championship two weeks ago - but he didn't play last week and should be much fresher for this event. Plus, he also played on this course last year and finished 25th (he has finished inside the top-40 in all his five Italian Open starts), whereas Colsaerts is making his course debut.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kjeldsen tb Fisher -120 (L); Montgomerie tb Howell +110 (L); Maybin tb Davies -105 (W); Aiken tb McGowan -105 (W); Lockerbie tb Butterfield -120 (L)]

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Fredrik Andersson Hed -150 @ SkyBet, Stan James, Bet365 and William Hill [available generally]  LOST by 5
Well worth the short odds in this matchup. Not only is it a standard angle to oppose a sole leader, but Andersson Hed's record when holding the lead is particularly poor. He has held the lead after any round just five times over the last seven years and this is what he has scored in the next round: 2010 Avantha Masters - 72; 2009 St Omer Open - 73; 2007 Johnnie Walker Championship - 72; 2006 Open de Toulouse - 76; 2005 TCL Classic - 75. And it is not as though he has played particularly well this week - he has hit just 21 of 36 greens in regulations and ranks 76th in this category this week, but also 98th in driving distance and 70th in driving accuracy. If he is not playing particularly well, he really should struggle once again when faced with the pressure of leading an event. Jimenez leads the event in greens in regulation so far this week and sits in 2nd place, just one shot behind Andersson Hed. He should be able to capitalise on the leader's problems tomorrow.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Coles tb Gustafsson -125 (L); Lawrie tb Andersson Hed -130 (L); Dredge tb Drysdale -105 (L); Bourdy tb Colsaerts -125 (L); Coltart tb Hend -105 (T); Colsaerts tb Andersson Hed -125 (L); Fraser tb Maybin +112 (W); Garrido tb Canizares -120 (W); Otto tb Edberg -105 (W); Canizares tb Colsaerts -125 (L)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Anthony Wall to beat Graeme Storm -111 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Opposing Storm who is currently 10th, but had missed five of eight cuts so far this year and both cuts in his previous Italian Open stats. He is clearly playing better, but he is still some way behind Wall in terms of ball-striking, who ranks in the top-20 this week in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling. As such, he appears less likely to maintain his leaderboard position in the final round than Wall who has also finished ahead of him in 10 of 12 common events over the last eight months.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Jimenez tb Molinari +105 (L); Lawrie tb Larrazabal -125 (W); Kjeldsen tb Molinari +100 (T); O'Hara tb Clement -105 (W)]