Madrid Masters

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1-1; -0.44pts  (system plays: 6-4-3) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Alejandro Canizares +100 @ William Hill  WON by 2
A decent price to oppose Canizares who struggled around Wentworth in 77 on Sunday and then followed that with 36 holes on Monday in the U.S. Open qualifer where he finished 57th of 76 players. After finishes of 3rd, 10th and 2nd in the previous three weeks it was hardly surprising that Canizares ran out of gas on Sunday and Monday and he could well remain so this week. On a course that requires accuracy and has small greens, Jimenez should be better placed to beat Canizares for the 8th time in 11 common events in Spain.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Wilson tb Canizares A +140 (W); Garcia tb Canizares A +100 (W); Hansen tb Andersson Hed -116 (T); Wilson tb Morrison +100 (T); Dougherty tb Cabrera-Bello -116 (W); Foster tb Lara +115 (T)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Rhys Davies -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Five Dimes]  LOST by 2
Opposing Davies in this situation even though he held the 1st round lead in the Malaysian Open in February and retained it after the second round. He has certainly shown some impressive form this year, culminating in a win in the Trophee Hassan II, but his best results have been in the Asian co-sanctioned events, which should be no surprise as he held a Tour Card for the Asian PGA Tour just two years ago. In terms of his finishes in Europe alone, his record this year is mc, mc, 34th. By contrast, Donaldson has finished 6th, 10th and 34th in Europe - he has finished in the top-10 in four of his last five starts; Davies has just done so once in his last five starts. So, I'm more confident that Donaldson will maintain his form for another round and that the pressure of leading the event, plus it being his birthday, will lead to a less impressive round from Davies.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Lowry tb Vancsik -116 (W); Dyson tb Gallacher -116 (W); Fernandez-Castano tb Davies +100 (W); McGowan tb Davies +108 (L)]

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Niclas Fasth to beat Richard Finch -118 @ Unibet  TIED
Just quoting one statistic to support this play: since the start of the 2009 season, Fasth has shot a lower score in the 4th round than Finch every time apart just one occasion.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Storm tb Rock -110 (L); Fasth tb Rock -105 (L); Jacquelin tb Rock -116 (L)]