Portugal Masters

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0-4; -10.90pts  (system plays: 9-7-5)

Round 1 play (2pts):

David Lynn to beat Gary Boyd -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
Two players in good form and so have no concerns over the playing rights in 2011. However, whereas Boyd has never played on this course, Lynn has made the cut in all three previous stagings of this event and has a good record in Portugal generally - 5 top-10 finishes in the last decade. By contrast, Boyd's previous closest attempt to playing in Portugal has been in the Madeira Island Open - he failed to break 70 in any of his six rounds in that event.

Round 2 play (2pts):

Alvaro Quiros to beat Robert Karlsson -125 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 2
Two players with very good histories in this event - Quiros has finished 11th, 1st and 16th in the three years of this event; Karlsson has finished 2nd, 3rd and mc - so it should be no surprise to see them in 8th place and 1st place respectively after the 1st round. However, this is not a position that should be comfortable for Karlsson - both his top-3 finishes in this event have come from off the pace. The last time that he held the 1st round lead in a Tour event was in the 2008 PGA Championship - he shot 77 in the next round; the previous occasion that he held the first round lead was back in the 2005 Open de Madrid - he shot 76 in the next round; and the time before that was over seven years ago.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Parry tb Karlsson +120 (W); Noren tb Karlsson +105 (L); Derksen tb Davies -125 (L); Kjeldsen tb Davies +100 (T)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Francesco Molinari to beat Rhys Davies -110 @ Boyle Sports  [available generally]  LOST by 5
Backing the more in-form player in this matchup. Davies has been struggling for form over the last three months - four missed cuts in seven events and just one finish inside the top-60 - whereas Molinari can count five top-10 finishes since July. He also finished 2nd in this event last year when he followed a 63 with a 66 in the next round, so I don't expect a 'reverse bounceback' from his 62 yesterday.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Wilson tb Davies +105 (W); Kjeldsen tb Davies +100 (L); Finch tb Otto -155 (T); Fernandez-Castano tb Davies -111 (W); Fernandez-Castano tb Lawrie Pe +100 (T); Finch tb Martin -112 (L); Jacquelin tb Horsey +105 (L); Jaidee tb Lawrie Pe +105 (T); Fernandez-Castano tb Boyd -145 (W)]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Oliver Wilson to beat John Parry +100 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 1
Opposing Parry who is in good form, but will surely be tied having played in seven out of the last eight week and made the cut every time, but more importantly has finished 1st and 3rd in his last two events. He is currently 5th after his 3rd round 64 saw him jump 31 places up the leaderboard, but Wilson should be the more likely to remain in the top-5. He has, after all, finished behind Parry just twice in his career and shot the higher final round score just once.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Dixon tb Lima +100 (W); Molinari F tb Molinari E +110 (W); Quiros tb Molinari E -115 (L); Green tb Noren +100 (W); Green tb Fernandez-Castano -110 (W); Green tb Jaidee -111 (W); Davies tb Parry +105 (T); Kjeldsen tb Derksen +100 (L)]