Scandinavian Masters

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1-2; -0.20pts  (system plays: 3-9-2) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Peter Lawrie to beat Pelle Edberg -110 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 4
Opposing Edberg even though he is the home player. He may have finished 2nd in the Saint-Omer Open last month against a very weak field - it was opposite the U.S. Open - but he has otherwise missed the cut in four of his last five starts, including a Challenge Tour event in Sweden last time out. By contrast, Lawrie has made the cut in each of his last six starts and even though course form is irrelevant as this is a new course, he has finished in the top-30 in five of the last six years in this event - Edfors has managed that just one in seven attempts, so he hasn't benefitted from any 'home advantage' in the past. The other issue is that apart from Lawrie being in better form, he is a fast starter, albeit a poor finisher, of events. Since March he has played in 12 events, during which time he has finished the 1st round in the top-20 six times and has a rd1 scoring average of 69.25 over that period.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Derksen tb Bourdy +100 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Dustin Johnson to beat Louis Oosthuizen +100 @ Stan James  LOST by 3
Rather surprised that Oosthuizen is leading this event after the 1st round given the week that he has just had, but that is clearly a case of momentum. When he has to get up at 5am tomorrow and prepare for the 2nd round, that is surely when the fatigue factor will completely override his momentum. That it was self-belief and the euphoria of winning the Open Championship that propelled Oosthuizen up today's leaderboard is evidenced by his round stats: he leads the event, but ranks 108th in driving accuracy and 51st in greens in regulation; he simply holed out better than anyone else. Such weakness in his game will be his undoing tomorrow morning. That Johnson also shares the lead in this event is not a surprise. This brand-new course has the look of an American TPC and particularly with five par-5s it is very much suited to a player of Johnson's abilities. He showed that with a 64 in the pro-am and he showed that today with a 67 and his game was in much better condition than Oosthuizen's - he ranked in the top-25 on the day in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling, putts per round and putts per green in regulation. By these stats, it is surprising that he didn't shoot an even lower score and he may well do so tomorrow.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson D tb Jacquelin -120 (T); Molinari tb Green -150 (T); Choi tb Gonzalez -150 (W); Johnson D tb Hanson +100 (L); Edberg tb O'Hara -182 (L); Derksen tb Hoey -137 (W); Johnson D tb Andersson Hed -137 (L)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Mark Brown to beat Scott Hend +100 @ SkyBet [available generally]  WON by 13
Backing the more in-form player and one who is currently on course to retain his Tour Card for 2011. The same cannot be said for Hend who lies 152nd in the Race to Dubai and so will be playing under much greater pressure to make the most of their current top-20 positions.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Green tb Johnson R +110 (L); Thornton tb Echenique +100 (L); Derksen tb Johnson R -120 (L); Choi tb Johnson R -150 (L)]

Round 4 play (6pts):

Brett Rumford to beat Rafa Echenique +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365 and Carib]  TIED
Opposing Echenique in the final round. At 122nd in the Race to Dubai standings, he is currently outside the mark needed to retain his Tour Card so he will be under a lot of pressure to make the most of his current 4th place position. Maybe that pressure has already been building this week as each round has been successively higher than the previous one. He started the weekend in the top-10 in his last event, the Scottish Open, but shot 72-73 to lose valuable ranking points as well as prize money and this is something that he has done from this position recently: since July last year, he has started the final round in the top-10 just twice, but shot 77 in the Open de France and 74 in the Trophee Hassan II. Rumford has been much consistent than Echenique who had missed his previous seven cuts before the Scottish Open and can be counted on to remain in the top-10 as he has done in 10 of the last 12 times that he has started the final round in the top-10.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Sabbatini tb Jacquelin +110 (L); Colsaerts tb Echenique +110 (L)]