Celtic Manor Wales Open

Subscribe

1-2; -2.80pts  (system plays: 4-14-1) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Soren Kjeldsen to beat Rhys Davies +110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
Davies has naturally caught the headlines after his playoff loss to Luke Donald last week and his rapid rise up the World Rankings over the past year ... so much so that the Tour rookie is now openly talking about qualifying for the Ryder Cup team. That always leads to better value odds in opposing the headling-making player. But this is also a situation in which Davies could easily shoot a very high score. He has admitted in interview that he faces the weight of the home crowd expectations in his national Open and while he says that he can shoulder that expectation, it will be a new experience for him and one that leads more often than not to the home player having a poor performance in the opening rounds. That said, Kjeldsen was 2nd in this event three years ago and, despite Davies' form, the Welshman has yet to shoot a lower first round score than the Dane since January.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Ramsay tb Horsey -105 (W); Fisher R tb Quiros +100 (L); Green tb Aiken -111 (L); Edfors tb Pawrie Pa +110 (L); Hansen S tb Dyson -109 (W); Rock tb Derksen -111 (W); Noren tb Dredge -111 (L); Fisher R tb Kaymer -111 (L); Lawrie Pe tb Kingston -110 (L); Jimenez tb Oosthuizen -111 (W)]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Luke Donald to beat Graeme McDowell -120 @ Paddy Power [also available @ William Hill]  WON by 5
After finishing 2nd and 1st in the last two weeks, it was to be expected that there would a fatigue factor in the 1st round this week: Donald currently lies 111th. That said, McDowell is only marginally better in 63rd place and with Donald only three shots off the cut line, there is no certainty that he will be heading out of Wales before the weekend. In fact, his record when shooting such a poor 1st round in the past would indicate that he is a particularly good 'bounce-back' player. He was outside the top-100 after 18 holes of the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this year and followed that with a 68; he was outside the top-100 after 18 holes in two events last year and made the cut both times. In fact, going back eight years (and 18 situations in which he has been outside the top-100 after the 1st round), he has never shot worse than 72 in the second round.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Storm tb Kingston +108 (T); Andersson Hed tb Jacquelin +110 (L); Clarke tb Lara -111 (L); Willett tb Molinari E +115 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Richard McEvoy to beat Maarten Lafeber +105 @ Five Dimes  TIED  (after McEvoy took six on the last hole!)
Surprised to see McEvoy as the clear underdog in this matchup. He has hit more fairways, hit more greens and has a better scrambling record this week than Lafeber. He also ranks higher in the Race to Dubai standings and the World Rankings and his form over the last two months is clearly better than that of Lafeber. Presumably their current position of 4th on the leaderboard would suggest that the more experienced player should fare better tomorrow. However, Lafeber has started the weekend in top-5 just twice in the last four years (both occasions were in 2009) and he shot 73 and 76 in the next round. I'd rather side with the younger player, particularly at these odds.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Rhys Davies -140 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 3
A slow start to his round is a typical reaction to shooting such a low score in the previous round, but Donald did manage to score four birdies on the back nine and regain some momentum. He looks to be too far off the pace unless Siem struggles tomorrow, but with finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd in three of his last four starts, he is clearly the form player in Tour golf at the moment and, fatigue withstanding, looks set to build on his current 14th place position. By contrast, Davies has fallen down the leaderboard after each round after his promising day one score and fell from a particularly promising position today with a two-over-par score for his last seven holes. As outlined previously, being the home favourite leads to be a lot of pressure and it appears to be taking its toll on Davies.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Jimenez tb Molinari E -120 (L); Dyson tb Molinari E +105 (L); Fernandez-Castano tb Gallacher -111 (L); Lee tb Huldahl +100 (L); Gallacher tb Molinari E +110 (L)]