Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

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1-3; -6.90pts  (system plays: 7-9-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Rory McIlroy to beat Graeme McDowell +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ William Hill, Paddy Power and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 5
One of the marquee matchups featuring two very in-form players: since the Valderrama Masters, McDowell has finished 1st, 34th, 3rd, 5th, 13th, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, while McIlroy has finished 5th, 6th, 5th and 4th over the same period. However, the difference is certainly marked in terms of course form: whereas McIlroy has finished 11th, 5th and 3rd here, McDowell's record reads 41st, mc, mc. By his own admission, he struggles on this course because it is so long - over 7,500 yards. There have been some tweaks to the course to place more emphasis on straight driving, but this is still a course that does not suit McDowell's game no matter how well he is playing. So long as McIlroy isn't too rusty in his first start of 2011, he should have a decisive advantage over his compatriot this week.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Hansen A tb Manassero +102 (W); Lawrie Pa tb Colsaerts -110 (L); Molinari F tb Oosthuizen -105 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Anders Hansen to beat Pablo Martin -145 @ Extrabet  LOST by 2
Short odds, but still a straighforward selection. Hansen is a player to side with in match bets as his last four starts indicate - 2nd, 11th, 11th and 9th - and the same with his course form - 30th, 15th and 8th. On the other hand, Martin is a player who represents better value in outright mar*kets as his last five starts indicate - mc, mc, 16th, 1st and mc - and the same with his course form - mc and mc. So, with Hansen in 8th place after rd1 and without a bogey on his card and with Martin outside the cut-line after finishing with four bogeys in his last five holes today, there seems little reason to doubt that they will continue in the same form tomorrow.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kjeldsen tb Strange -133 (W); Rumford tb Fasth -130 (L); Green tb Andersson Hed -123 (W); Kjeldsen tb Parry -111 (W); Manassero tb Noren +100 (W); Westwood tb Kaymer +100 (L); Westwood tb Harrington -125 (V); Edfors tb Webster -123 (L); Lee tb Coles -130 (L); Zanotti tb Strange -130 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Anders Hansen to beat Richard Green +106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Bet365]  LOST by 2
Hansen became the second selection in as many days in this event to tamely surrender a decent lead on the back nine, however, he really did play in the worst in the weather this afternoon. Green, in that respect, was very fortunate to have teed off early in the morning. Both players are very consistent and so Green should provide a much tougher opponent than Pablo Martin, but Hansen has finished ahead of Green in each of the last two years here and should bounce back tomorrow. There is no reason for his odds to be so large for the 3rd round.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Anthony Wall to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Wall has a decent history in this event with a 4th place finish two years ago and no worse than 45th in any of the five years of this event, so it is no surprise to see him in 15th place with one round to play. Colsaerts is better-placed in 8th, but that is the reason to oppose him tomorrow. He has been in the top-10 with one round to play in 13 previous European Tour events and has never shot better than 70 in final round and averages 73.62 ... he is certainly a player to oppose in this position!

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Lafeber tb McGowan +115 (L); Wall tb Davies +105 (W); McIlroy tb Kaymer +100 (L); McDowell tb Kaymer +163 (L)]