BMW PGA Championship

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3-1; +6.00pts  (system plays: 7-7-1) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Paul Casey to beat Ross Fisher +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Fisher may have grown up on this course and made the cut on all five previous attempts and finished in the top-10 in the last two years. However, his form has not been great for some time - he has now dropped outside the top-50 in the World Rankings - and he has not looked to be in any better form since he returned to the Tour following the birth of his son - he missed the cut in the Players Championship and won one of three matches in last week's matchplay event. Casey's form may not be great either, but no-one can match his course form - 11th, 12th, 10th, 1st and 17th in the last five years - so this should be a week when he returned to his former self on the course.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Donaldson tb Gallacher +100 (W); Casey tb Poulter -122 (L); Casey tb Rose +105 (W); McIlroy tb Clarke -125 (L); Jimenez tb Oosthuizen -143 (T); Donald tb Westwood -120 (W); Fisher R tb Poulter -112 (L); Casey tb Molinari F -118 (W); Fisher R tb Molinari E -110 (L); Molinari E tb Oosthuizen -135 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Alvaro Quiros to beat Matteo Manassero +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet and Paddy Power]  WON by 3
Two players who have already won this year, but the value should be with Quiros at these odds. He comes into this event in better form having finished 6th and 5th in his last two events, which includes The Players Championship, while Manassero hadn't broken 70 in any round in either of his last two events, and Manassero has finished ahead of Quiros in just one strokeplay event over the last eight months. Both start the 2nd round in the top-10, but Quiros appears more likely to stay there.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Lawrie Pa tb Molinari E +100 (L); Clarke tb Manassero +130 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Thomas Aiken to beat Alvaro Quiros +110 @ Stan James  LOST by 1
Surprisingly large odds on Aiken. He is an in-form player with a very good history on this course: he won the Open de Espana earlier this month and then fniished 9th in the Iberdrola Open and, in terms of this course, he has finished 10th and 17th in the last two years. He has also looked very impressive this week: he ranks 2nd in the all-important category on this course - greens in regulation. By contrast, Quiros ranks 113th. To be fair, given the way that he plays, such a fairways-and-greens approach is not always relevant, but it should matter sooner or later and especially when playing under the pressure of leading this event on this course.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Anders Hansen to beat Ross Fisher +100 @ William Hill  WON by 3
Twice a winner of this event (2002, 2007) and in the form that has yielded three top-3 finishes in his last five strokeplay events, Hansen warrants support even against the home-course player.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Dodt tb Parry J +120 (W); Yang tb Horsey -120 (L); Goosen tb Molinari E -116 (W)]