|
|
 |
18-Hole Match Picks - European Tour |
|
|
1-1; +0.64pts (system plays: 3-7-1) Round 1 play (4pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Alvaro Quiros +112 @ Unibet [also available @ Stan James and Extrabet] TIED
For all his troubles last year, Garcia still led Quiros 8-4-0 h2h in the first round in 2010. Now he is refreshed and with a passion that was re-ignited with his vice-captancy in the Ryder Cup and looking forward to playing tournament golf again. He is clearly far from worthy of consideration to win this event, but he should produce a solid showing this week. It will also help his chances that Monty has designed the course with a links-feel - run-up areas to the green, firm greens and conditions that are really anything other than breezy. He is a master of links-type golf and is very good in the wind; the same cannot be said of Quiros. [unofficial rd1 system play: Harrington tb Molinari E +120 (L); Hansen S tb Cabrera-Bello -111 (L)] Round 2 play (2pts): Ricardo Gonzalez to beat Johan Edfors +132 @ Extrabet WON by 6
There is no doubt that Edfors made the most of the much easier morning conditions on day one and deserves to hold the first round lead. However, the fact that he holds a two-shot lead over the rest of the field can only add pressure to his game tomorrow. He was in a similar position on two occasions in 2010, but then shot 74 in the second round of the Vivendi Cup in September and 72 in the second round of the Portugal Masters in October. He appears likely to again fail to break par after such a low opening score. Gonzalez may not be the most consistent of players, but he is in good form - he finished 8th last week, he should be re-enthused after closing with an eagle, and these are very good odds to oppose the leader.
Round 3 play (2pts): Richard Green to beat Matteo Manassero +100 @ 5Dimes and Bet365 LOST by 6
Green is a player who already tends to play well in the Middle East. He is a former winner of the Dubai Desert Classic and already has eleven top-20 finishes in this region; he enters the weekend in 18th place and looks set to secure another top-20 finish. Given that he has now made 12 cuts in a row, he should be counted upon to remain within contention for the rest of the weekend. For the hit-and-miss Manassero, who took a triple-bogey seven on his penultimate hole, that looks less assured so I'll favour the more consistent player in this 3rd round matchup. Round 4 play (2pts): Edoardo Molinari to beat Alexander Noren -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet] TIED
Molinari was again impressive from tee to green today, but he struggles on the green as he fell from overnight lead to 9th place. However, with his game still intact, I expect him to bounce back tomorrow. Other than the first time that he started the final round in the top-10 on the European Tour, he has always finished the event not only in the top-10, but in the top-5 in the seven previous situations like this, dating back to the Dubai Desert Classic last February. Only four shots off the pace, he could certainly bounce back to be a contender tomorrow. As for Noren, he failed to shoot a lower final round score than Molinari in any event last year and shot 76 from a similar situation last Sunday to fall to 31st, so he should be a player to oppose tomorrow. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Bjorn tb Lee -105 (W); Karlsson tb Molinari F +110 (W); Wilson tb Cabrera-Bello -110 (L); Dredge tb Gonzalez +120 (L); Storm tb Nilsson -120 (T); Jimenez tb Hanson -120 (W); Sterne tb Ramsay -125 (L); Manassero tb Hanson +105 (L); Kingston tb Clarke +138 (L)]
|
